FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Maize production in 2013 is forecast at an above average level, similar to last year

• Maize prices continued to climb sharply in March 2013, reaching alarming levels

• Nearly 2 million people were estimated to be food insecure. However, conditions are expected to improve with the arrival of the 2013 harvest

As high maize prices persist, late season dry spells are likely to reduce crop yields in some districts

KEY MESSAGES

• Second round crop estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) have projected gross maize production at about 3.68 million MTs. While this estimate is slightly higher (1.5 percent) than 2011/12 production levels, FEWS NET expects that the third round crop estimates will better capture the impact of the extended dry spells on crop yields in the central and northern region, and maize production estimates will likely decrease.

Maize, rice, and cassava are the most important food commodities. Markets selected represent the entire geographic length of the country: two markets in each of the north, center, and south. In the north, Karonga is one of the most active markets in maize and rice and is influenced by informal cross-border trade with Tanzania. Mzimba is a major maize producing area in the northern region. Salima, in the center along the lake, is an important market where some of the fishing populations are almost entirely dependent on the market for staple cereals.

In Somalia, needs will be highest among IDPs and the pastoral destitute when the lean season approaches in October.

Dry spell continues, compromising yields in several countries

KEY MESSAGES

• A prolonged dry spell in the southern half of the region has continued for over 2 months in some areas, resulting in crop yield reductions and dampened harvest expectations.

• Though prospects remain good in some parts of the region, factors that have compromised expected harvests in other areas include an erratic onset of rains, armyworm outbreaks, input distribution challenges, along with flooding and waterlogging.

KEY MESSAGES

• Across most of West Africa, food prices remained stable or decreased in January as staple food availability continued to improve with the ongoing marketing season. Staple food prices increased in areas affected by flooding in Nigeria as well as in areas with market disruptions linked to conflict in northern Mali (Pages 4-6).

Maize, rice, and cassava are the most important food commodities. Markets selected represent the entire geographic length of the country: two markets in each of the north, center, and south. In the north, Karonga is one of the most active markets in maize and rice and is influenced by informal cross-border trade with Tanzania. Mzimba is a major maize producing area in the northern region. Salima, in the center along the lake, is an important market where some of the fishing populations are almost entirely dependent on the market for staple cereals.

Favorable harvest prospects if rainfall distribution remains good through March

KEY MESSAGES

• Average national retail maize prices continued to be high in January and were 89 percent above the five-year average and 58 percent higher than last year’s price levels. FEWS NET expects these price increases to continue through the lean season. When the harvest arrives in April, prices will decrease but are expected to remain above both the five-year average and the previous year’s level throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Most households will start accessing food during the main season harvest from April to June which will result in the stabilization of food prices.