Grave concerns persist for some 20 million people in the Sahel. Recurrent conflict, erratic weather patterns, epidemics and other shocks continue to weaken the resilience of households across a region still suffering chronic levels of food insecurity and malnutrition.
An estimated 20.4 million people remain food insecure at the start of 2015. At least 2.6 million people have already crossed the crisis threshold, 70 percent of whom are in Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Chad where insecurity and poverty compound food insecurity.
Epidemics continue to demand urgent attention in 2015. Besides cholera, meningitis, Lassa and yellow fever, more recently, Ebola has been posing a serious threat to the Sahel region and has already impacted Mali, Nigeria, and Mali directly.
Beyond the chronic threats of food insecurity, malnutrition and epidemics, violent conflict in and around the Sahel region has led to a surge in population displacement. The region begins 2015 with some 2.8 million people displaced; over a million more than in early 2014. With escalating conflict in northeast Nigeria, an estimated one million people have been internally displaced. Some 150,000 Nigerian refugees have fled to neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The volatile security situation in northern Mali continues to have a devastating impact on civilians, hampering the return of refugees, affecting markets and preventing the full restoration of basic services. Some 133,000 Malian refugees remain in Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso and more than 80,000 Malians remain internally displaced. As in Nigeria, high levels of insecurity in northern Mali also greatly impact the ability of humanitarians to access those in need. (Sahel: A call for humanitarian aid, 12 Feb 2015)
On 10 July 2015, the Strategic Response Plan for the Sahel was 31% funded. (OCHA, 27 Jul 2015)
Appeals & Funding
- Sahel Strategic Response Plan (SRP) 2015 EN/FR
- Humanitarian Needs Overview EN/FR
- 2014-2016 Strategic Response Plans: Sahel Region EN/FR; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Chad; Gambia; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Nigeria; Senegal
In West Africa, market availability was adequate in June with supplies from 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Regionally-produced staple food prices increased seasonally, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by conflict in northeastern Nigeria and neighboring areas, the CAR, and northern Mali.
Above-average temperatures and rainfall lead to flooding in Central Asia
Central Asia Weather Hazards
High temperatures during the first half of July have led to mudflows and flooding, damaging infrastructure and displacing populations across eastern Tajikistan.
· FAO’s global cereal price index continued to fall in Q2-2015, down 19 percent year-on-year.
· The real price of wheat dropped a further 9 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 33 percent lower than in Q2-2014, thanks to increased global supply and lower consumption.
· The real price of maize has fallen by 3 percent since Q1-2015 and is 21 percent lower than inQ2-2014. However, global production for 2015/16 is set to be lower and thus prices are likely to rise.
Abnormally wet conditions are continuing for several nations in the western Gulf of Guinea region
Moisture deficits worsen further in southeast Sudan, Eritrea and parts of Ethiopia with a continued lack of rainfall.
UNITED NATIONS DESTROYS 290 TONS OF OBSOLETE AMMUNITION IN MALI
Snapshot 22–28 July 2015
Somalia: More than 10,000 people have been displaced in Lower Shabelle and Bay regions since AMISOM and Somali armed forces began their offensive. Al Shabaab has lost control of Bardhere in Gedo and Dinsoor in Bay. In accessible areas of Hudur town, Bakool, 33% GAM and 19% SAM were observed in a MUAC assessment in July – a significant deterioration since June. Very critical malnutrition rates persist in Bulo Burde, Hiraan.
Increased rainfall unlikely to overcome deficits in Central America, Hispaniola, and parts of West Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
A slightly delayed start to the season with sporadic light rains in recent weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have led to delayed planting and have negatively impacted livestock health.
Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 23 – 30, 2015
A delayed onset of rainfall is leading to abnormally dry conditions in Chad as well as Senegal and Gambia.
Moisture deficits worsen further in southeast Sudan, Eritrea and northwest Ethiopia with a continued lack of rainfall.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR JANUARY 2016
Snapshot 15–21 July 2015
Iraq: More than 74,440 people have been displaced from Saqlawiyah in Falluja district since 8 July, and tens of thousands reportedly remain trapped in Falluja and Ramadi districts. There are now more than 3.1 million IDPs across 3,613 locations in Iraq; 300,000 people have been displaced from and within Anbar since military operations began in April.
From Ebola to the bombing of Gaza, civil society was the first responder to humanitarian emergencies during the last year, but faces dire threats and a funding crisis around the world, says a new report.
“During the last year civil society was everywhere, doing great work often at the frontline of the world’s challenges, but at the same time having to stave off threats to its very existence,” said Dr Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, the CIVICUS Secretary-General on launching the organisation’s 2015 State of Civil Society Report.
Drought develops over Central America, dryness persists in East and West Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the central and northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.
Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 16 – 22, 2015
Moisture increases for portions of the Senegal region; dry areas farther east show little improvement.
Moisture deficits deepen in southeast Sudan, Eritrea and northwest Ethiopia with a continued lack of rainfall.
Snapshot 8–14 July 2015
Yemen: More than 1,500 civilians have been killed since conflict began to escalate in March, and airstrikes and fighting continue despite the agreement to a six-day humanitarian pause over 11–17 July. There are now 1.26 million IDPs in the country – a 24% increase since mid-June. Only 20% of the fuel needed is available in the country, which is impacting upon all basic needs.
Welcome to the July issue of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project’s (ACLED) Conflict Trends report. Each month, ACLED researchers gather, analyse and publish data on political vio-lence in Africa in realtime. Weekly updates to realtime conflict event data are published on the ACLED website, and are also available through our research partners at Climate Change and Afri-can Political Stability (CCAPS).
Irregular rainfall to persist in Central America and Hispaniola; dryness worsens in West Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over parts of this region.
An El Nino event active since March 2015 will almost certainly last through 2015 and is likely to extend into early 2016.
The intensity of this event is increasing with a peak expected in the last quarter of 2015 and there is a significant chance that it may become one of the strongest events of the past 30 years.
Prospects for world cereal production in 2015 remain favourable, despite recent adverse weather conditions in some regions and continuing concerns over El Niño, with the global cereal supply and demand outlook for 2015/16 pointing to generally stable conditions.
More than ten years after first arriving in Chad, over 360,000 Sudanese refugees are now dealing with a new reality. In the face of dramatic food ration cuts, and after years of shrinking support from the international community, aid agencies are pushing these refugees to become self-sufficient and more deeply integrated with their Chadian hosts. With the global humanitarian system overstretched, a more sustainable and targeted assistance strategy for this population would seem reasonable. But the early stages of this transition have encountered serious problems.