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01 Sep 2015 description

August 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Kashmir, Lebanon, Nepal, Yemen

  • Improved situations

Guinea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka

September 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts

Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Iraq, Nepal, Yemen

  • Conflict resolution opportunities

    South Sudan

28 Aug 2015 description

Increased rainfall across Hispaniola due to tropical storm activity

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Widespread, heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has caused flooding over local areas of West Africa. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, elevating flooding risks over many already saturated areas.

  2. Significant rainfall is forecast to continue over eastern Chad and western Sudan, heightening risks for localized flooding and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.

21 Aug 2015 description

Poorly distributed rainfall in West and East Africa likely to exacerbate conditions

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Widespread, heavy rain during the past few weeks has caused flooding over local areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, maintaining elevated risks for flooding over many areas.

07 Aug 2015 description

Heavy rainfall forecast for flood-affected areas of West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A slightly delayed start to the season has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have reportedly led to delayed planting and have negatively impacted the health of livestock.

  2. Heavy downpours have caused flooding and fatalities in Conakry, Guinea during the past week. Torrential rain is forecast to continue during the next week, which could worsen conditions on the grounds.

01 Aug 2015 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was adequate in June with supplies from 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Regionally-produced staple food prices increased seasonally, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by conflict in northeastern Nigeria and neighboring areas, the CAR, and northern Mali.

24 Jul 2015 description

Increased rainfall unlikely to overcome deficits in Central America, Hispaniola, and parts of West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A slightly delayed start to the season with sporadic light rains in recent weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have led to delayed planting and have negatively impacted livestock health.

17 Jul 2015 description

Drought develops over Central America, dryness persists in East and West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the central and northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

10 Jul 2015 description

Irregular rainfall to persist in Central America and Hispaniola; dryness worsens in West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over parts of this region.

01 Jul 2015 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was adequate in May, with supplies from recent 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Staple food prices were stable or declining, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. The recent opening of borders among Ebola-affected countries contributed to improved trade flows in some areas, following disruptions over the second half of 2014.

26 Jun 2015 description

Increased rainfall unlikely to relieve dryness in Central America and Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over parts of this region.

19 Jun 2015 description

Rainfall remains below average across parts of West Africa, Latin America, Ethiopia, and Djibouti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western Niger, and north-central Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past five weeks has delayed planting and already negatively affected cropping activities over parts of this region.

13 Jun 2015 description
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English version

Start of season remains slow in parts of West Africa, abnormal dryness continues in Central America and Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across southern Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, and north-central Nigeria.
    The lack of rainfall over the past five weeks has delayed planting and negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas of the region.

31 May 2015 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was adequate in April, with supplies from recent 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Staple food prices were stable or declining, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. The recent opening of borders among Ebola-affected countries contributed to improved trade flows in some areas, following disruptions over the second half of 2014.

02 Apr 2015 description

Key Messages

In West Africa, market availability was adequate in February, with supplies from recent 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Staple food prices were stable or declining, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. The recent opening of borders among Ebola-affected countries contributed to improved trade flows in some areas, following disruptions over the second half of 2014.

01 Mar 2015 description

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, regional harvests from the 2014/15 season arrived progressively onto markets in January. Staple food prices were stable or declining, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. The recent opening of borders among Ebola-affected countries contributed to improved trade flows in some areas, following the substantial disruptions that occurred over the second half of 2014.

03 Feb 2015 description

The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.

06 Jan 2015 description

December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.

14 Nov 2014 description

Poor rainfall leads to abnormal dryness in parts of East Africa; slow start to seasonal rainfall in Angola, Zambia

  1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

02 Nov 2014 description

After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war.

31 Oct 2014 description

Rainy season begins slowly in southern Africa, dryness widens in Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. As the rainy season in Senegal comes to an end and harvesting begins, reduced crop yields due to this summer’s poorly distributed rainfall and delayed onset of the rainy season in July could become evident.

  2. Consistently above-average rains across parts of eastern Ethiopia have caused flooding downstream along the Juba and Shabelle River Basins in southern Somalia. Continued rainfall is expected to result in additional flooding.