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14 Nov 2014 description

Poor rainfall leads to abnormal dryness in parts of East Africa; slow start to seasonal rainfall in Angola, Zambia

  1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

02 Nov 2014 description

After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war.

31 Oct 2014 description

Rainy season begins slowly in southern Africa, dryness widens in Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. As the rainy season in Senegal comes to an end and harvesting begins, reduced crop yields due to this summer’s poorly distributed rainfall and delayed onset of the rainy season in July could become evident.

  2. Consistently above-average rains across parts of eastern Ethiopia have caused flooding downstream along the Juba and Shabelle River Basins in southern Somalia. Continued rainfall is expected to result in additional flooding.

24 Oct 2014 description

Second-season dryness continues in Haiti, flooding risks remain in Central America and South Sudan

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. As the rainy season in Senegal comes to an end and harvesting begins, reduced crop yields due to this summer’s poorly distributed rainfall and delayed onset of the rainy season in July could become evident.

17 Oct 2014 description

Dryness remains in Haiti, while flooding risks continue in South Sudan, Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite a return of seasonally normal rainfall during August, moisture deficits persist in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has resulted in poor growing conditions and crop development.

11 Oct 2014 description
  1. Despite a return of seasonally normal rainfall during August, moisture deficits persist in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has resulted in poor growing conditions and crop development.

  2. Poor July rains in several local areas of Mali have resulted in poor crop and pastoral conditions. August and September rains have improved ground conditions, although the rainy season is quickly coming to a close.

09 Oct 2014 description

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The forecast for global cereal production in 2014 has been raised closer to last year’s record, which is expected to boost inventories to a multi-year high.

  • Export prices of wheat and maize decreased further in September to multiyear lows, driven by expectations of large global supplies in 2014/15. Even rice prices, which had been rising in previous months, fell in September.

03 Oct 2014 description

Above-average rains continue in Central America, dryness remains in several parts of East and West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops in the Arsi and West Arsi zones of central Ethiopia.

02 Oct 2014 description

The U.S. expanded its aerial campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants in late September with strikes in Syria’s north and east. The operation, which targets both IS and fighters linked to al-Qaeda’s central leadership and the affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, risks alienating other rebel groups in Syria and strengthening support for IS.

26 Sep 2014 description

Rainfall improving in Latin America, with dryness ongoing in parts of West Africa and Ethiopia

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central Ethiopia.

19 Sep 2014 description

Above-average rainfall improves conditions across Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central Ethiopia.

12 Sep 2014 description

Dryness remains despite improved rains in Latin America and Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central Ethiopia.

  2. An early cessation of Mar-May seasonal rainfall and an abnormally dry July has hurt crop and pasture conditions in parts of central and northern Ethiopia.

02 Sep 2014 description

The fight for control of Libya between the Misrata-led Islamist-leaning coalition and the Zintan-led forces is escalating by the day. Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced in over six weeks of clashes and heavy artillery fire. The Misrata side emerged victorious in the battle over Tripoli’s international airport, taking control of the capital, and made advances around Benghazi, but the larger political divide remains unresolved.

01 Sep 2014 description

Rainfall expected to alleviate some dryness in Central America and Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi areas of central Ethiopia.

22 Aug 2014 description

Dryness expected to continue in much of Central America, Haiti, and Central Asia

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Since early June, poor rainfall distribution has delayed planting and hurt crop development in northeastern Nigeria. Although an increase in rainfall was observed recently, continued favorable rainfall amounts are needed to overcome long-term deficits.

15 Aug 2014 description
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Severe dryness persists in Latin America and Haiti, with flooding in Sudan and South Sudan

  1. Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been below average and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria, leading to growing moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, abnormally dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.

09 Aug 2014 description

Severe dryness continues across Latin America and Haiti, with dryness and flooding in parts of Africa

  1. Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been below average and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria, leading to growing moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, anomalously dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.

18 Jul 2014 description

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Above-average rain during the past 30 days has saturated ground conditions and caused localized flooding in parts of South Sudan and southern Sudan. Above-average rains forecast during the next week are expected to increase the risk of localized flash flooding
11 Jul 2014 description

Flooding possible in Mali, Sudan, and South Sudan; dryness continues in Central America and Haiti

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Heavy and above-average rains since May has oversaturated ground conditions in southern Mali and resulted in rainfall surpluses greater than 200 percent of normal in some locations. With heavy rain forecast for the next week, the risk for new flooding across the region will be increased.