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02 May 2016 description

The month saw fighting escalate again in Syria and Afghanistan, and erupt in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces. In Bangladesh, election violence and killings by extremist groups showed how new heights of government-opposition rivalry and state repression have benefitted violent political party wings and extremist groups alike. Political tensions intensified in Iraq and Macedonia, and security forces severely supressed opposition protests in the Republic of Congo and Gambia.

02 Apr 2016 description

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election.

02 Mar 2016 description

The month saw conflict continue to rage in Turkey’s south east between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), looking likely to further escalate in March. Afghanistan and Somalia both saw armed insurgencies capture new territories. In Africa, political tensions rose in Chad, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, while in Venezuela, deadlock between the opposition-held parliament and government has brought the country closer to political and economic implosion.

02 Feb 2016 description

The month saw an intensification of Yemen’s war, amid heightened regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran complicating prospects for peace. Political tensions increased in Haiti, Guinea-Bissau and Moldova, where protests over endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in the government could escalate. In Africa, Boko Haram’s deadly attacks increased in northern Cameroon, and Burkina Faso was hit by an unprecedented terror attack.

04 Jan 2016 description

December 2015 – Trends

- Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger

- Improved situations

January 2016 – Watchlist

- Conflict risk alerts

Burundi

- Conflict resolution opportunities

Libya

01 Dec 2015 description

November 2015 – Trends

Deteriorated situations

Bangladesh, France, Kosovo, Lebanon, Nepal, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela

Improved situations

Burkina Faso, Myanmar

December 2015 – Watchlist

Conflict risk alerts

Venezuela

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
02 Nov 2015 description

October 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey

  • Improved situations
    Iran

November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Turkey

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
09 Oct 2015 description

Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa

Summary

02 Oct 2015 description

Dryness worsens in Ethiopia and coastal West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Reduced rainfall is expected during in the region during lateSeptember.

01 Oct 2015 description

September 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen

  • Improved situations
    Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia

October 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
    Colombia

25 Sep 2015 description

Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall has led to saturated ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.

18 Sep 2015 description

Little relief expected for anomalously dry areas of East Africa and Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Significantly above-average rainfall since early August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding across the region.

11 Sep 2015 description

Dry conditions forecast for areas of Central America already in severe drought

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Heavy rainfall in August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week.

04 Sep 2015 description

Recent increases in rainfall provide little relief to long-term dryness in East Africa and Hispaniola

  1. Widespread, persistent, and heavy rainfall over the past several weeks have led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. The continuation of heavy rainfall is forecast for the upcoming week, maintaining flooding risks throughout several areas in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, western Niger, eastern Guinea and Sierra Leone.

01 Sep 2015 description

August 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Kashmir, Lebanon, Nepal, Yemen

  • Improved situations

Guinea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka

September 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts

Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Iraq, Nepal, Yemen

  • Conflict resolution opportunities

    South Sudan

28 Aug 2015 description

Increased rainfall across Hispaniola due to tropical storm activity

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Widespread, heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has caused flooding over local areas of West Africa. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, elevating flooding risks over many already saturated areas.

  2. Significant rainfall is forecast to continue over eastern Chad and western Sudan, heightening risks for localized flooding and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.

21 Aug 2015 description

Poorly distributed rainfall in West and East Africa likely to exacerbate conditions

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Widespread, heavy rain during the past few weeks has caused flooding over local areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, maintaining elevated risks for flooding over many areas.

07 Aug 2015 description

Heavy rainfall forecast for flood-affected areas of West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A slightly delayed start to the season has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have reportedly led to delayed planting and have negatively impacted the health of livestock.

  2. Heavy downpours have caused flooding and fatalities in Conakry, Guinea during the past week. Torrential rain is forecast to continue during the next week, which could worsen conditions on the grounds.

01 Aug 2015 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was adequate in June with supplies from 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Regionally-produced staple food prices increased seasonally, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by conflict in northeastern Nigeria and neighboring areas, the CAR, and northern Mali.

24 Jul 2015 description

Increased rainfall unlikely to overcome deficits in Central America, Hispaniola, and parts of West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. A slightly delayed start to the season with sporadic light rains in recent weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have led to delayed planting and have negatively impacted livestock health.