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24 Jun 2016 description

Substantial rain returned to Uganda and the Lake Victoria region this past week

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has resulted in drought across parts of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The potential for recovery remains unlikely.

  2. Consistently below-normal rainfall over the past 4 weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for portions of Uganda and western Kenya. This pattern has resulted in low soil moisture and poor vegetation health index values.

10 Jun 2016 description

Increased rainfall to alleviate dryness in areas of West Africa and Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite increased rainfall over some areas of the Gulf of Guinea over the past fews weeks, low and erratic rainfall in April and May has led to growing moisture deficits over Liberia and parts of Sierra Leone.

02 Jun 2016 description

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, market availability was good in April with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria.

01 Jun 2016 description

The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff.

27 May 2016 description

Reduced rainfall expected to alleviate flooding concerns in the Shabelle River basin

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite more favorable rainfall along the coast during the last week, low and poorly-distributed rainfall during April and May has led to moderate moisture deficits over Liberia, portions of eastern Guinea Conakry, Cote d’Ivoire, and western Ghana.

06 May 2016 description

Increased rainfall providing some relief to early season dryness in Guatemala and the Greater Horn

  1. Poorly-distributed rainfall since October 2015 has resulted in large moisture deficits, leading to wilted crops, livestock deaths, and reduced water availability over many areas of Southern Africa. With the season coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.

02 May 2016 description

The month saw fighting escalate again in Syria and Afghanistan, and erupt in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces. In Bangladesh, election violence and killings by extremist groups showed how new heights of government-opposition rivalry and state repression have benefitted violent political party wings and extremist groups alike. Political tensions intensified in Iraq and Macedonia, and security forces severely supressed opposition protests in the Republic of Congo and Gambia.

02 Apr 2016 description

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election.

02 Mar 2016 description

The month saw conflict continue to rage in Turkey’s south east between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), looking likely to further escalate in March. Afghanistan and Somalia both saw armed insurgencies capture new territories. In Africa, political tensions rose in Chad, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, while in Venezuela, deadlock between the opposition-held parliament and government has brought the country closer to political and economic implosion.

02 Feb 2016 description

The month saw an intensification of Yemen’s war, amid heightened regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran complicating prospects for peace. Political tensions increased in Haiti, Guinea-Bissau and Moldova, where protests over endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in the government could escalate. In Africa, Boko Haram’s deadly attacks increased in northern Cameroon, and Burkina Faso was hit by an unprecedented terror attack.

04 Jan 2016 description

December 2015 – Trends

- Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger

- Improved situations

January 2016 – Watchlist

- Conflict risk alerts

Burundi

- Conflict resolution opportunities

Libya

01 Dec 2015 description

November 2015 – Trends

Deteriorated situations

Bangladesh, France, Kosovo, Lebanon, Nepal, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela

Improved situations

Burkina Faso, Myanmar

December 2015 – Watchlist

Conflict risk alerts

Venezuela

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
02 Nov 2015 description

October 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey

  • Improved situations
    Iran

November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Turkey

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
09 Oct 2015 description

Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa

Summary

02 Oct 2015 description

Dryness worsens in Ethiopia and coastal West Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Reduced rainfall is expected during in the region during lateSeptember.

01 Oct 2015 description

September 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen

  • Improved situations
    Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia

October 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
    Colombia

25 Sep 2015 description

Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall has led to saturated ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.

18 Sep 2015 description

Little relief expected for anomalously dry areas of East Africa and Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Significantly above-average rainfall since early August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding across the region.

11 Sep 2015 description

Dry conditions forecast for areas of Central America already in severe drought

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Heavy rainfall in August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week.

04 Sep 2015 description

Recent increases in rainfall provide little relief to long-term dryness in East Africa and Hispaniola

  1. Widespread, persistent, and heavy rainfall over the past several weeks have led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. The continuation of heavy rainfall is forecast for the upcoming week, maintaining flooding risks throughout several areas in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, western Niger, eastern Guinea and Sierra Leone.