Grave concerns persist for some 20 million people in the Sahel. Recurrent conflict, erratic weather patterns, epidemics and other shocks continue to weaken the resilience of households across a region still suffering chronic levels of food insecurity and malnutrition.
An estimated 20.4 million people remain food insecure at the start of 2015. At least 2.6 million people have already crossed the crisis threshold, 70 percent of whom are in Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Chad where insecurity and poverty compound food insecurity.
Epidemics continue to demand urgent attention in 2015. Besides cholera, meningitis, Lassa and yellow fever, more recently, Ebola has been posing a serious threat to the Sahel region and has already impacted Mali, Nigeria, and Mali directly.
Beyond the chronic threats of food insecurity, malnutrition and epidemics, violent conflict in and around the Sahel region has led to a surge in population displacement. The region begins 2015 with some 2.8 million people displaced; over a million more than in early 2014. With escalating conflict in northeast Nigeria, an estimated one million people have been internally displaced. Some 150,000 Nigerian refugees have fled to neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The volatile security situation in northern Mali continues to have a devastating impact on civilians, hampering the return of refugees, affecting markets and preventing the full restoration of basic services. Some 133,000 Malian refugees remain in Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso and more than 80,000 Malians remain internally displaced. As in Nigeria, high levels of insecurity in northern Mali also greatly impact the ability of humanitarians to access those in need. (Sahel: A call for humanitarian aid, 12 Feb 2015)
Due to the ongoing crisis in the Lake Chad Basin, Chad is now the seventh largest refugee-hosting country in the world with over 750,000 displaced persons, the majority of whom are refugees or Chadian returnees who fled from the Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, and Sudan. At the end of August, the Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Sahel called on the international community to ramp up its support in response to the multi-faceted humanitarian challenges affecting the country. (OCHA, 27 Aug 2015)
As of 20 November 2015, the Strategic Response Plan for the Sahel was 41% funded. (OCHA, 20 Nov 2015)
Appeals & Funding
- Sahel Strategic Response Plan (SRP) 2015 EN/FR
- Humanitarian Needs Overview EN/FR
- 2014-2016 Strategic Response Plans: Sahel Region EN/FR; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Chad; Gambia; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Nigeria; Senegal
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the third quarter of 2015 (July to September).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.
• FAO’s global cereal price index still continued to fall in Q3-2015, down 12.7 percent year-on-year and is now at 2010 levels.
October 2015 – Trends
Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey
November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
- Conflict resolution opportunities
World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a generally comfortable situation. While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand, requiring only a small reduction in global inventories by the end of the season.
On October 14, 2015, Secretary Kerry submitted the 2014 International Religious Freedom Report to the United States Congress. Now in its 17th year, this congressionally-mandated Report comprises almost 200 distinct reports on countries and territories worldwide and continues to reflect the United States’ commitment to, and advancement of, the right of every person to freedom of religion or belief. The Report is available at www.State.gov and www.HumanRights.gov.
La situation relative au Criquet pèlerin est restée calme en septembre. Malgré les bonnes pluies et les conditions écologiques favorables, seule une reproduction limitée a été détectée jusqu’à présent dans le nord du Sahel d’Afrique de l’ouest. Cependant, les effectifs acridiens augmentent progressivement et il se peut qu’il y ait davantage de criquets que ceux observés lors des prospections.
September 2015 – Trends
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen
Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia
October 2015 – Watchlist
Conflict risk alerts
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic
Conflict resolution opportunities
Super El Niño and climate change cause crop failures putting millions at risk of hunger
At least ten million poor people face hunger this year and next due to both droughts and erratic rains influenced by climate change and the likely development of a ‘super El Niño’.
Finland together with many other countries pledged new commitments to peacekeeping at the U.N. Peacekeeping Summit during the week of high-level meetings on 28 September. U.S. President Barack Obama chaired the Summit, which aimed at increasing contributions and at strengthening capabilities to the ever more challenging UN peacekeeping operations.
El Salvador: More than 100,000 farmers are estimated to be affected by crop losses due to a prolonged dry-spell. Up to 60% of the total maize crop has been lost in the affected areas. An estimated 156,000 people are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, mainly in eastern and western regions.
Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America
Africa Weather Hazards
Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall has led to saturated ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.
The on-going El Niño event, officially declared in March, will remain active throughout 2015 and is very likely to extend into the first quarter of 2016.
The event is now strengthening towards its peak intensity which should be reached in late 2015. There is a significant chance that this event could be close or even exceed the strongest levels on record.
Little relief expected for anomalously dry areas of East Africa and Hispaniola
Africa Weather Hazards
Significantly above-average rainfall since early August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding across the region.
Snapshot 9–15 September 2015
Afghanistan: The number of severely food insecure has risen to 1.5 million people, according to a new assessment. 7.3 million people are moderately food insecure. Food security among IDPs is worsening, with around 200,000 people reported to be in need of immediate assistance.
Dry conditions forecast for areas of Central America already in severe drought
Africa Weather Hazards
Heavy rainfall in August has led to saturated ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week.
Snapshot 2–8 September 2015
Yemen: The health system in Taizz governorate is close to collapse. All public hospitals have closed, and the remaining health facilities are overwhelmed by severely injured people as well as a dengue outbreak. Access remains severely restricted across the country. Hudaydah port, the main entry point for humanitarian supplies in north and central Yemen, remains closed, and road transport from Aden port to northern governorates remains limited.
La situation relative au Criquet pèlerin est restée calme en août. Seuls des ailés solitaires en faibles effectifs étaient présents dans des parties des aires de reproduction estivale dans le nord du Sahel de la Mauritanie, du Niger, du Tchad et du Soudan. Toutefois, les bonnes pluies généralisées tombées sur toutes ces zones ont rendu les conditions écologiques favorables, ce qui permettra à une reproduction à petite échelle d’avoir lieu en septembre et octobre.