Grave concerns persist for some 20 million people in the Sahel. Recurrent conflict, erratic weather patterns, epidemics and other shocks continue to weaken the resilience of households across a region still suffering chronic levels of food insecurity and malnutrition.
An estimated 20.4 million people remain food insecure at the start of 2015. At least 2.6 million people have already crossed the crisis threshold, 70 percent of whom are in Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Chad where insecurity and poverty compound food insecurity.
Epidemics continue to demand urgent attention in 2015. Besides cholera, meningitis, Lassa and yellow fever, more recently, Ebola has been posing a serious threat to the Sahel region and has already impacted Mali, Nigeria, and Mali directly.
Beyond the chronic threats of food insecurity, malnutrition and epidemics, violent conflict in and around the Sahel region has led to a surge in population displacement. The region begins 2015 with some 2.8 million people displaced; over a million more than in early 2014. With escalating conflict in northeast Nigeria, an estimated one million people have been internally displaced. Some 150,000 Nigerian refugees have fled to neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The volatile security situation in northern Mali continues to have a devastating impact on civilians, hampering the return of refugees, affecting markets and preventing the full restoration of basic services. Some 133,000 Malian refugees remain in Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso and more than 80,000 Malians remain internally displaced. As in Nigeria, high levels of insecurity in northern Mali also greatly impact the ability of humanitarians to access those in need. (Sahel: A call for humanitarian aid, 12 Feb 2015)
Due to the ongoing crisis in the Lake Chad Basin, Chad is now the seventh largest refugee-hosting country in the world with over 750,000 displaced persons, the majority of whom are refugees or Chadian returnees who fled from the Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, and Sudan. At the end of August, the Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Sahel called on the international community to ramp up its support in response to the multi-faceted humanitarian challenges affecting the country. (OCHA, 27 Aug 2015)
As of 20 November 2015, the Strategic Response Plan for the Sahel was 41% funded. (OCHA, 20 Nov 2015)
Appeals & Funding
- Sahel Strategic Response Plan (SRP) 2015 EN/FR
- Humanitarian Needs Overview EN/FR
- 2014-2016 Strategic Response Plans: Sahel Region EN/FR; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Chad; Gambia; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Nigeria; Senegal
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR MAY 2016
Somalia: Flooding has affected 132,000 people and displaced an estimated 60,000 as low-lying areas of Mogadishu have now been inundated, as well as areas of Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba. Main supply roads are impassable and some airstrips unusable The middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle River remain at high risk of flooding.
Millions of vulnerable households globally could face increased hunger and poverty due to droughts and floods as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9 to 12 months. Typically, this climatic condition develops during April-June and reaches maximum strength during December-February; this event could be the most powerful on record (Earth Institute 2015).
IN FOCUS & FOOD INSECURITY HOTSPOTS
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the third quarter of 2015 (July to September).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.
• FAO’s global cereal price index still continued to fall in Q3-2015, down 12.7 percent year-on-year and is now at 2010 levels.
Snapshot 28 October – 3 November 2015
Syria: 1 million more people are in need of humanitarian assistance than a year ago, as the total is now at 13.5 million. 6.6 million people are internally displaced, with 120,000 newly displaced in Aleppo, Hama, and Idleb governorates. Shelter, food, and WASH are reported as priority needs for the newly displaced.
The IASC Alert, Early Warning and Readiness report is produced bi-annually as an inter-agency effort by the Task Team on Preparedness and Resilience (TTPR) for IASC member agencies. The report highlights serious risks that were either identified as being of particular strategic operational concern or as having a high probability and impact on humanitarian needs. In addition to collaboratively assembling the report, the report includes an analysis of the state of readiness, prepared by OCHA, which is compared against each risk.
October 2015 – Trends
Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey
November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
- Conflict resolution opportunities
Snapshot 21-27 October 2015
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR APRIL 2016
World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a generally comfortable situation. While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand, requiring only a small reduction in global inventories by the end of the season.
Chad: Violence continues to fuel large-scale displacement in Lac region. Suicide attacks on 10 October killed 41 people and wounded 48 at a busy Bagasola market and a refugee camp on the town’s periphery. Over 71,000 people who have been displaced since July face urgent shelter, food, WASH and health needs.
Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa
Afghanistan: The humanitarian situation in Kunduz is deteriorating as fighting for control of the city continues. Aid organisations have withdrawn, after a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital was bombed in an airstrike, killing 22 and injuring 37.
Burundi: At least eight civilians were killed in Bujumbura over the weekend as political violence persists, and people continue to flee. Some 128,000 people are reliant on food assistance: in some of the areas affected by insecurity, food prices are up to 95% higher than average.
Dryness worsens in Ethiopia and coastal West Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Reduced rainfall is expected during in the region during lateSeptember.
September 2015 – Trends
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen
Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia
October 2015 – Watchlist
Conflict risk alerts
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic
Conflict resolution opportunities
Super El Niño and climate change cause crop failures putting millions at risk of hunger
At least ten million poor people face hunger this year and next due to both droughts and erratic rains influenced by climate change and the likely development of a ‘super El Niño’.
El Salvador: More than 100,000 farmers are estimated to be affected by crop losses due to a prolonged dry-spell. Up to 60% of the total maize crop has been lost in the affected areas. An estimated 156,000 people are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, mainly in eastern and western regions.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR MARCH 2016
Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America
Africa Weather Hazards
Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall has led to saturated ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.