The Kenya Meteorological department (KMD) released an early warning on 25th April 2016, warning of heavy rains and storm surges (80% probability) that were expected to affect different parts of the country in the immediate period. (Kenya Red Cross, 30 Apr 2016)
Heavy rainfall has been observed in various parts of the country throughout the month of April 2016. Since 24 April 2016, this has intensified and resulted in widespread flooding in Nairobi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Turkana. A total of 34,129 people have been affected. Nairobi County has so far experienced the worst effects of the rains and flooding, with lower income slum areas of Nairobi amongst those worst affected. On 29 April 2016, heavy rains led to the collapse of one residential building in the Huruma Estate in the North East of the city, which accommodated 107 families. As of 3 May 2016, Sixteen (16) deaths have been confirmed, 135 people have been treated for multiple types of injuries, and 75 have been reported missing. (IFRC, 3 May 2016)
The 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon has been one of the strongest on record, affecting deeply the lives and livelihoods of more than 60 million people across 40 countries. It has devastated crops and killed livestock, in some cases dried up water-sources in others caused massive flooding, driven up malnutrition rates, increased disease outbreaks and caused significant migration.
In 2015, models by metrological agencies globally, including the Kenya Metrological Department (KMED), predicted a 90% probability of El Niño conditions1 during the "short rains" of the October, November, December (OND) season. The forecasts predicted above average rainfall in parts of Kenya and an approximate 80% chance of the El Niño conditions lasting into early 2016. The impacts were expected to vary geographically, with some areas experiencing seasonal flooding and others experiencing just good rainfall for agricultural production.
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
• Preliminary findings from nutrition surveys between May and July 2016 indicate the situation in Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties remain critical, with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates over 20 percent in parts of Turkana (over 15 percent emergency threshold).
Food security to deteriorate as lean season sets in earlier than normal
Substantial rain returned to Uganda and the Lake Victoria region this past week
Africa Weather Hazards
Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has resulted in drought across parts of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The potential for recovery remains unlikely.
Consistently below-normal rainfall over the past 4 weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for portions of Uganda and western Kenya. This pattern has resulted in low soil moisture and poor vegetation health index values.
The Trilogy Emergency Relief Application (TERA) is an innovative location-targeted SMS system that allows users, including National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, to send messages containing disaster warnings, health advice, and updates on emergency preparedness and responses. This system is also designed for a two-way communication approach that allows aid agencies and mobile phone users in disaster-prone areas to interact.
Although the food security situation in Kenya has improved in 2016, from 1.1 million to 639,400 people food insecure following two consecutive above-average rainy seasons, disease outbreaks, insecurity, flash flooding and a refugee crisis continue to present humanitarian needs and challenges.
By 23 May 2016, a total of 15,421 cholera cases with 243 deaths (CFR=1.6%) had been reported nationally. A total of 162 cases of measles and two cases of Yellow Fever have also been reported.
• TC BONNIE formed over the northwestern Atlantic ocean on 27 May causing damage.
• As of 30 May, local media reported one person missing in North Carolina state, as well as traffic disruptions in the states of North & South Carolina and Virginia. (GDACS, NOAA, Media)
• Heavy rain has been affecting the central and southern areas of the country over the past week causing floods and landslides.
- Heavy rain has been affecting the country, especially the county of Tana River, over the past few days causing floods and damage. As of 31 May early morning (UTC), local media reported 2 500 people displaced and 200 houses damaged by floods in Tana River county.
- Over the next 24 h light to locally moderate rain may still affect the south-western areas of the country.
Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Rainfall was received during the first and second dekad of the month with cessation being witnessed during the third dekad. For instance, rainfall received in Nasukuta was 138 percent of the normal with a temporal distribution of fourteen days. The distribution in space was relatively good.
The most affected areas are Konemasa and Chara locations.
By GALGALO BOCHA
More than 2,500 families in Tana Delta are marooned after Tana River burst its banks.
Many have been forced to relocate to higher ground as others sought accommodation from relatives and friends in neighbouring villages that have not been affected.
The residents from a reported 46 flooded villages appealed to the county government, through the Special Programmes Department, and humanitarian agencies for help.
The 2016 long rains have been fully established across most parts of the country. The rains have been average to above average in the medium and high potential agricultural areas, which is expected to yield an average to above-average harvest in these areas. However, in the marginal agricultural and pastoral areas, rainfall has been below average in some areas, especially in the southeast and coastal marginal, which is likely to lead to a below-average crop harvest for the marginal areas.
Rainfall deficits continue to increase in the Gulf of Guinea region
Africa Weather Hazards
Poorly-distributed rainfall since October 2015 has resulted in large moisture deficits, leading to wilted crops, livestock deaths, and reduced water availability over many areas of Southern Africa. With the season coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.
- Close to 640 000 people in Kenya are food insecure and more than 80% of these live in the country’s arid regions. Inter-clan conflict, insecurity and disease outbreaks also continue to destabilise many people’s lives in addition to drought. This year’s El Niño has led to torrential rains and floods causing damage and fatalities across the country.
- Kenya hosts nearly 600 000 refugees from South Sudan, Somalia and the Great Lakes region.
Situation report 006 – Country Wide Floods and Huruma Building Collapse
Sitrep no. 006/May/2016
Date of issue – 16/05/2016
Time period of Sitrep: 1600Hrs
• Heavy rain has been affecting several parts of the country over the past weeks causing floods.
• National authorities reported at least 25 people dead, 125 injured and several missing in the district of Huruma (Nairobi) due to a building collapsing on 29 April due to heavy rain, as of 6 May. Furthermore, local media reported a further seven people dead and hundreds displaced in Turkana county, one missing in Mombasa county, as well as traffic disruption in both counties, as of the same day.
During the reporting period, at total of 312 returnees have been assisted to voluntarily return to Somalia by flight: 159 to Mogadishu, 76 to Kismayu and 77 to Baidoa. Since the repatriation process started in December 2014, 63 road convoys and 75 flights have been organized to Somalia (67 Mogadishu, 4 Kismayu and 4 to Baidoa). In Total 13,800 returnees were supported as of 28th April 2016 out of which 7,703 were assisted between January and April 2016.