Heavy rainfall was received in most parts the County; Busia, Homabay, Nandi, Kisumu, Nakuru, Bomet, Nyandarua, Turkana, Kericho, Nairobi and Narok Counties are amongst them. Average rainfall was witnessed in Malindi, Nyeri, Baringo, Mombasa, and Samburu Counties. Light showers were recorded in Garissa and Wajir Counties. KRCS activated various responses to the incidents resulting from increased rainfall witnessed in the country over the last few days (Kenya Red Cross, 10 Nov 2015).
WFP has started responding to county requests and assessed food needs in Garissa and Tana River. In Tana River, a rapid assessment found that 6,840 households (41,000 people) require food assistance. In Garissa, provisional estimates indicate that up to 20,000 households (120,000 people) are displaced or cut off, and may need relief assistance. The government has requested the army to provide a helicopter for an aerial assessment. (WFP, 2 Dec 2015)
It is expected that flooding will continue through December 2015 and into early January in Western Kenya (due to overflow of Rivers Nyando, and Nzoia), and in the counties of Garissa, Tana River and Kilifi (mainly due to heavy downpour in the Mount Kenya Region, which forms the catchment zone for the River Tana).
The ongoing rains have led to a host of problems, including flooding (rivers bursting their banks in Garissa, Tana River, Migori, Busia and Homa Bay), flash floods (Narok), landslides/mudslides (Mt. Elgon, Kisii, West Pokot and Narok) road traffic accidents (Turkana, Homa Bay, and Nairobi) and lightning strikes (Kisii). Together, it has resulted in 112 deaths and 73 recorded injuries. In total, 40,121 Households (HHs) (approximately 240,726 people) have been affected, including a total of 17,254 HHs (approximately 103,524 people) who have been displaced. (IFRC, 4 Jan 2016)
The El Niño 2015-16 in the Context of Past El Niños
The 2015/16 El Niño Event
An El Niño event was officially declared in March 2015, gaining in intensity until it reached its peak in December 2015. The event came to an end in May 2016, becoming one the strongest on record, together with the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
A. Situation analysis
28 MILLION PEOPLE FORCIBLY DISPLACED BY CONFLICT AND DISASTERS IN 2015 AND MILLIONS MORE STILL INVISIBLE: IDMC NEW REPORT HIGHLIGHTS GLOBAL CRISIS OF INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT
Conflict, violence and disasters internally displaced 27.8 million people in 2015, subjecting a record number of men, women and children to the trauma and upheaval of being forcibly displaced within their own country.
Snapshot 9 – 15 March
Yemen: Insecurity in Aden is increasing, with attacks carried out on civilian targets. At least 150 people have been reported killed in the past three months, including at least 50 in March. Humanitarian actors have increasing difficulty to carry out operations. In Taizz, the west of the city has been taken by pro-Hadi forces after heavy fighting: fighting for the east continues.
Snapshot 2–8 March 2016
Malawi and Mozambique: Flooding and drought have led to the most severe food crisis Malawi has faced in a decade: 2.8 million people face acute food insecurity, including 900,000 facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. In Mozambique, an estimated 600,000 people are in Crisis due to drought. In addition, 9,300 Mozambicans in Malawi who fled armed conflict need WASH, health and shelter assistance.
Snapshot 24 February – 1 March 2016
Swaziland: At least 300,000 people – one-third of the population – are in dire need of assistance, specifically of food and water. Poor and erratic rainfall as a result of El Niño dates back to 2014, and Swaziland has been experiencing significant reductions in crop production.
Snapshot 17–23 February 2016
DRC: More than 35,000 people have lost shelter in Zongo, Sud-Ubangi, due to forest fires that have been affecting the territory since mid-December. The fires have destroyed over 2,600 hectares of crops. Assistance delivery is hampered by bad road conditions between Gemena and Zongo.
Pakistan: Over 190 children have died and 22,000 have been hospitalised in Tharparkar district in 2016 because of drought-related waterborne and viral diseases. Tharparkar is facing severe drought for the fourth consecutive year, and access to health services is reported to be very difficult, with families travelling an average distance of 17km to reach the nearest health facility.
A total of 11,332 and 19,592 under-five children in the Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps respectively, from January to December 2015, received Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) services for severe and moderate acute malnutrition.
UNICEF provided medical supplies (Ringers Lactate, Oral Rehydration Solution and antibiotics), which were used in the treatment of 211,283 children in cholera-affected counties from January to December 2015.
The continuing cholera outbreak in 22 counties, including in the Dadaab Refugee Camp and El Nino-related flooding presented the greatest challenges in the last quarter of 2015. Starting in November 2015, Kenya experienced flooding associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon. By 28 December 2015, 10,221 cases and 174 deaths (CFR=1.7%) had been reported nationally in 22 counties. An intensified response by the Government and partners has led to outbreak control in 16 counties, with only 6 counties reporting active outbreaks by the end of the year.
Syria: The military offensive in Aleppo governorate has displaced more than 40,000 people since late January, and the number of displaced is reported to be increasing. There is concern that a siege of opposition-held areas of Aleppo city is imminent. An estimated 20,000 newly displaced Syrians are stuck at the Bab al Salam crossing along the Syria–Turkey border, as Turkey has denied them entry into Turkish territory.
Snapshot 27 January – 2 February 2016
Boko Haram in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad: 86 people were killed and 62 injured, with 15 missing after Boko Haram set fire to Dalori, near Maiduguri in Borno state. The past week also saw attacks in Chibok that left 13 dead and 30 injured. 40 civilians were reported dead after Cameroonian troops announced they were carrying out a search for BH militants in the area. In Cameroon, 52 people were killed in BH attacks in January. In Chad, two suicide bombings in Lac region left three dead and 56 wounded.
Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
- The vegetation condition indexes recorded during the month continue to improve when compared with the previous month. The current value 48.76(3month vci) is within the normal ranges for the month.
- All the five water sources available in the county are currently in use.
Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)
Food security improves following above-average short rains
Most households in western areas and Rift Valley are maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity following the October to January long rains harvest, which has increased market supplies and household food stocks and helped stabilize market prices. The harvest is estimated to be approximately 10 percent above the five-year average.
60 million PEOPLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO IN THE FOUR MOST AFFECTED REGIONS
2.8 million PEOPLE REQUIRE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS
10.2 million PEOPLE IN NEED OF EMERGENCY FOOD IN ETHIOPIA
14 million FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA – EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA
El Niño status
Background and purpose
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has as its **Strategic Objective 5** to “Increase the resilience of livelihoods to threats and crises”. In support of its national counterparts, FAO aims to address the current and future needs of vulnerable people affected by the 2015‒2016 El Niño event.
As the impact of El Nino translates into increased food assistance needs across most areas of WFP’s operations, WFP could be stretched operationally and financially during 2016.
Urgent action is needed to enable WFP to sustain its food and nutrition assistance to affected populations and to help reduce their vulnerability to further shocks.
Total affected population: 1.1 million
Total affected children (under 18): 473,000
Total people to be reached in 2016: 620,000
Total children to be reached in 2016: 470,000
2016 programme targets