Early warning signs provide alarming indications of looming significant food supply shortages that are likely to impact on the next marketing season. The rains experienced in late March and early April provided some relief to livestock farmers, but arrived too late for both staple foods and cash crops. These adverse weather conditions are likely to reduce crop production in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar and South Africa. The negative impact of flooding will also affect food security in Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique. (OCHA, 29 May 2015)
Nearly 29 million people are currently food insecure in southern Africa region mainly due to the carry-over effects of the past poor harvest season combined with other structural factors. Unless a two-track approach is quickly taken to address the current food insecurity and to establish measures to mitigate against the El Niño effects, the existing food insecurity will deepen and increase in scope with its effects will last till 2017. (Southern African Food and Nutrition Security Working Group, 17 Nov 2015)
The combination of a poor 2014/15 season and an extreme early dry spell during the 2015/16 rainy season to date (November to February) over southern and western Madagascar has resulted in an intense drought...It is now estimated that close to 1.14 million people are food insecure in seven districts of southern Madagascar (80% of the population). About 665 000 people are severely food insecure and in need of urgent emergency food security support until the end of the 2016/17 lean season...On 22 March, the government of Madagascar has declared a state of emergency for southern Madagascar. (ECHO, 30 Mar 2016)
Lesotho last had normal rainfall between April and May 2015... An estimated 15-30 percent of Lesotho’s population is in need of humanitarian assistance to help them cope with this acute drought situation. The Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee (LVAC) report for 2015 indicates deterioration in the food security situation with the number of people in need going from 447,760 to 463,936 (an increase in prevalence from 26% to 33%). (IFRC, 06 Apr 2016)
In Malawi, the prolonged dry spells and floods not only affected maize production but other crops such as ground nuts have also been affected, and harvests are down by 21%. This left more than 2.8 million people in Malawi food insecure for a period of between three to 8 months. 25 out of the 28 Districts in Malawi were affected. Of the 2.8 million people affected 886,204 were living in the hard hit flood-affected districts and 1,947,008 were in districts affected by poor rainfall. An estimated 20% to 40% of Malawi’s population were at that time reported to be in need of humanitarian assistance to help them cope with the acute food shortage. On 12 April 2016, the President of Malawi declared a state of national disaster as a result of prolonged dry spells during 2015/2016 season. (IFRC, 18 Apr 2016)
Mozambique is facing severe drought in the Southern and Central region of the country affecting approximately 1.5 million people. The Government activated the institutional red alert in the most drought affected provinces such as, Tete, Sofala, Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo aiming to intensify and expand the response actions, disburse additional funds planned for emergency situations and mobilize additional resources through the cooperating partners. (OCHA, 04 May 2016)
Based on preliminary results, the ZimVAC has indicated that the prevalence of rural food insecurity in Zimbabwe will be higher than the 30 percent revealed by the January 2016 Rapid Assessment. The global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence is likely to increase beyond the 5.7 percent indicated in January. (WFP, 14 Jun 2016)
Between October 2014 and February 2015, Namibia experienced highly erratic rainfall patterns that negatively impacted the planting and cultivation seasons. The recent 2016 assessment done by the office of the Prime Minister and Ministry of Agriculture estimated that 729,134 people were food insecure and 595,839 need immediate assistance due to the drought situation. Prolonged dry spells and extensive flooding characterized the planting season and resulted in delayed planting and destroyed crops. As a result, the 2014/15 crop production yields were 46% below average which put parts of country at high risk of food insecurity. (IFRC, 03 Aug 2016.)
November marks the normal start of the lean season in most of the region, but most countries experienced an earlier than normal start to the lean season this year because of the impact of the El Niño-drought in late 2015 and early 2016. Poor households in the most affected parts of the region including areas in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes with increasing areas likely falling into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes during the peak period (Jan-Mar 2017) in the absence of adequate humanitarian assistance. (FEWS NET, 23 Dec 2016)
- SADC: Regional Humanitarian Appeal (Jun 2016)
- FAO Southern Africa El Niño Response Plan (2016/17)
- RIASCO Action Plan for Southern Africa: Response Plan for the El Niño-induced Drought in Southern Africa (May 2016-Apr 2017)
- UNICEF El Niño Eastern & Southern Africa Region Investment Case (23 Jun 2016)
Maize meal and rice remained very expensive in Tete province in January
Maize grain is available in all markets except in Gaza
Prices for rice and cooking oil are well above the provincial averages in Xai-Xai (Gaza) and Chibabava (Sofala)
Food Security Outlook
Food Assistance in Numbers
- Over the three month peak of the crisis (January—March), WFP’s aims to reach more than 13 million people with food assistance in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
- In January, food assistance reached 10.6 million people in the seven countries.
Southern and central areas continued to receive well above average rains in January
Poor rainfall was received in western and north-eastern SADC and Madagascar
The Fall Armyworm has been confirmed in 7 countries in the region. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established
Tropical cyclones Carlos and Dineo affected the region in early to mid-February. The impacts of Cyclone Dineo are severe, particularly in southern Mozambique
Madagascar’s southern regions continue to endure the effects of a prolonged drought, aggravated by the effects of El Niño.
In January, despite operational challenges and access issues related to poor road conditions, WFP continued its drought emergency response to meet the increasing needs of disaster-affected communities through food and cash-based unconditional assistance and nutrition support.
1.1. Contexte de l’évaluation
• Good performance of the current growing season (October 2016 - April 2017) is badly needed for Southern Africa after two consecutive El Nino induced droughts that led to unprecedented levels of food insecurity.
• The growing season is now well established with favourable growing condition observed in most of Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and NE South Africa. However, excessive rains have led to instances of localized flooding and higher incidence of pests and diseases.
NOVEMBER 2016 – JANUARY 2017 RAINFALL
The southern half of conti-nental SADC region has re-ceived normal to above-normal rainfall in the current rainfall season.
The northern and eastern parts of contiguous SADC are still under normal to below-normal rainfall conditions.
Above-normal rainfall was experienced over Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, south Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique and Swaziland.
The Mozambique Red Cross is gearing up to provide emergency assistance to thousands of people displaced from their homes this week by Tropical Cyclone Dineo, amid reports of extensive damage to homes, hospitals, schools and other infrastructure in southern districts.
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Following poor rainy seasons over the past years, the south of Madagascar is currently facing a major drought crisis, with the El Nino phenomenon worsening the situation. About 1.2 million Malagasy are enduring food insecurity today, of whom 900,000 are in urgent need of assistance - the highest number in a decade.
Strengthening national and regional early warning systems, response and preparedness plans
16 February 2016, Harare – Sixteen East and Southern African countries agreed today on urgent plans of action aimed at boosting the region’s capacity to manage emerging crop pests and livestock diseases, including armyworm and avian influenza.
How much fresh water is available to people, where it is and how it is managed are probably the most important questions in water security. Miren Gutierrez of CDKN looks at the context in which CDKN and the Global Water Partnership put in place a capacity building programme aimed at improving resilience in Mozambique. This is part II of a two part blog; read the first one here
More hunger is threatening in rural areas amid complaints that Zimbabweans who oppose President Mugabe's ruling party are being denied assistance
By Jeffrey Moyo
SEKE, Zimbabwe, Feb 16 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Wearing a torn shirt that hangs below his knees, 11-year-old Mirirai Gwauya sits under a tree near his home in eastern Zimbabwe eating wild fruits and reading aloud from an old primary school textbook.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR AUGUST 2017
Published: February 16, 2017 | By Nick Hanson-James
Calls for enhanced capacities to prepare for and respond to emerging pests and diseases
15 February 2017, Harare - A three-day Regional Emergency Meeting discussing new transboundary crop and livestock pests in Southern Africa kicked off today with a call for increased investment in preparedness and response capacities to new and endemic threats in Southern Africa.
Maize prices continued to increase in December in most countries in the region. The upward pressure is likely due to the peak of the lean season. Overall, maize prices are very likely to remain above their average price trend at least until the next harvest. The two countries in the region with the maximum monitored maize market in ALPS Crisis were Malawi and (89% of its markets) and Mozambique (100% of its markets).
WFP scales up its El Niño response to an additional 78,000 people in four districts, reaching 1.1 million people with Lean Season Assistance in January.
Initial findings of the ZimVAC Rapid Rural Assessment suggest that the lean season assistance may need to be extended for two months to prevent farmers from prematurely consuming immature crops.
Additional resources are urgently needed to support existing and additional new refugees at Tongogara refugee camp.
- Exports of maize and convoy dispatches for Malawi and Zimbabwe for the El Niño response are expected to resume in February with a contract of 5,000 mt now concluded. An additional contract of 8,000 mt of maize also earmarked for exports is planned and will be sourced from commercial traders.
In January 2017, WFP provided emergency food assistance to some 154,000 drought affected people, of which an estimated 30,000 received cash based transfers (CBT). WFP plans to reach 250,000 food insecure people during the lean season.
Funding gaps for the EMOP remain and from now until April 2017 WFP requires an additional USD 5.4 million to ensure monthly assistance to the 250,000 people.