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22 Nov 2012 description

Increased rainfall during the last week helped to improve mid-season dryness across Kenya and Somalia, however moderate seasonal deficits remain for many local areas.

1) Even with a reduction of precipitation last week, several weeks of above-average rainfall has led to significant moisture surpluses. An elevated potential for moderate to heavy rainfall may trigger additional flooding, damage local infrastructure, and negatively impact cropping activities throughout Uganda, Kenya, northern Tanzania,
Rwanda and Burundi.

24 Oct 2012 description

1) With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locust swarms have formed in Chad and are expected to form shortly in Niger and Mali. Swarms are then expected to migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in western/central Mali.

26 Sep 2012 description

1) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and northward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during September could lead to locust outbreak across many regions.

09 Aug 2012 description
  • Torrential rains continue across the western portions of West Africa.
  • Widespread heavy rains were observed across eastern Africa.
  • Hatching eggs and low-density locusts increase the potential for locust outbreak over many regions.

1) Heavy downpours have resulted in fatalities and displaced population over North and Central Darfur regions of Sudan during the past week. Flooding potential remains as heavy rains are forecast to continue during the next week.

25 Jul 2012 description

1) Although rainfall has been consistent in the western parts of the country since the middle of May, accumulated rainfall has been erratic and below-average since the start of the Kiremt rainy season in June in portions of western Ethiopia including the Oromiya region. Another week of increased rainfall is forecast during the next seven days which will continue to help reduce moisture deficits and aid cropping activities in the region.

27 Jun 2012 description

The five-week delay in the onset of the March-May seasonal rainfall has significantly impacted ground moisture and cropping activities in the central region of Ethiopia. Although rainfall has been consistent in the western parts of the country since the middle of May, accumulated rainfall has been below-average. Another week of increased rainfall is forecast during the next seven days. This could help to reduce moisture deficits and aid cropping activities in the region.

Note: map in 2 pages

03 Feb 2012 description

Interpreting early March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa

Background

  • The March to May season is the major rainfall period for pastoral and agricultural areas of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and most of Somalia, accounting for 50‐60 percent of annual rainfall in many parts of the sub‐region (Figure 1). These rains are also critical for the secondary Belg season in Ethiopia.