Following good performance of long rains since March, food security improves in eastern areas

KEY MESSAGES

• The March to May long rains have been average to above average in amounts in the Southeastern Marginal Mixed Farming and pastoral livelihood zones, but they are expected to cease normally in mid-May. In most parts of the Coastal Marginal Agricultural Mixed Farming livelihood zone, rainfall will likely peak in May/June and cease in June/July.

Widespread and well above-average amounts of March to May rains fell in East Africa

KEY MESSAGES

Temperatures

During the past week, temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal across most of Central Asia. Temperatures are forecast to average 2 to 6 degrees C above normal during the second week of May. Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing except for the highest elevations of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Maximum temperatures are forecast to occasionally warm above 30 degrees C across southwest Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan during the next week.

Precipitation

Cereal prices remain generally stable with small increases in localized areas

KEY MESSAGES

Moderate to heavy Gu 2013 rains continue in most parts of the country

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

2) Little to no rainfall since the second dekad of March has been received across portions of eastern Angola, and western Zambia. Late season moisture deficits indicate an early departure of the southern Africa monsoon in the region and may affect crops planted late in the season.

Food security situation is likely to improve in southern and southeastern parts of the country

KEY MESSAGES

• March to May 2013 Gu/Genna rains in most parts of southern and southeastern pastoral areas started on time, were, well distributed, and were normal to above normal in amount. The rains have helped to increase pasture, browse, and water availability. Following the fair performance of the October to December 2012 Deyr/Hageya rains, better conditions for livestock are likely to improve the food security situation.

As high maize prices persist, late season dry spells are likely to reduce crop yields in some districts

KEY MESSAGES

• Second round crop estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) have projected gross maize production at about 3.68 million MTs. While this estimate is slightly higher (1.5 percent) than 2011/12 production levels, FEWS NET expects that the third round crop estimates will better capture the impact of the extended dry spells on crop yields in the central and northern region, and maize production estimates will likely decrease.

La hausse sans précédent des prix des céréales fragilise la sécurité alimentaire des ménages

MESSAGES CLÉS

• Les prix de mil et de maïs, déjà significativement supérieurs à la moyenne en avril 2013, vont évoluer au dessus de la tendance saisonnière jusqu’au pic de la soudure et la fin de Ramadan en fin août à cause des perturbations des marchés engendrées par les inondations de 2012 au Nigéria. Le centre et l’Est du Niger seront particulièrement affectés par cette situation.