Aid agencies estimate that some 12 million people are food insecure in the region, which has suffered widespread crop failures due to erratic weather. The impact of HIV/AIDS, deepening poverty and the weakened capacity of governments to care for people in need have exacerbated the current crisis.

(B) Middle East,Central Asia and Eastern Europe: (1) Pakistan

(C) East & Central Africa: (1) Burundi (2) Congo, DR (3) Ethiopia (4) Kenya (5) Rwanda (6) Sudan (7) Tanzania

(D) West Africa: (1) Chad (2) Liberia

(E) Southern Africa: (1) Lesotho (2) Malawi (3) Mozambique (4) Namibia (5) Swaziland (6) Zambia (7) Zimbabwe

(F) Latin America and Caribbean:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One-Month Lead

January -- March 2006 Southern Africa

The outlook for Jan-Mar 2006 southern Africa rainfall at one month lead shows a low to moderate tilt in the odds favoring below average rainfall over Namibia, portions of southern Angola, southern Botswana, Swaziland, portions of southern Mozambique, the Maize Triangle and the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and locally over southern Madagascar. There is a tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall locally over northern Angola, portions of eastern Zambia, northern

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

As the hunger season begins in earnest in Southern Africa, the food security situation is rapidly deteriorating in those countries facing severe food shortages as a result of a poor 2004/05 crop production season. Whatever household food stocks that were available have been drawn down, and levels of purchases are constrained by very high food prices, limited purchasing power and lack of employment opportunities.

Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia are the most severely affected by the crisis but it is also affecting people in Mozambique, Swaziland, Namibia and Lesotho.

In a region already struggling with chronic poverty, the combination of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, a volatile climate and

Weekly Introduction:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four Months Lead:

March – May 2006

Southern Africa

The outlook for March-May 2006 southern Africa rainfall at four months lead shows a tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall across Namibia and locally over western Botswana. There is a tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall over southern and northern Angola, portions of central and northeastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi, and portions of southern Tanzania.

East Africa