FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Generally favourable weather during the 2012/13 cropping season Maize production declined by 11 percent in 2012, but remained above average

• Lower domestic harvest in 2012 and economic downturn negatively impacts on food security

KEY MESSAGES

The 2012/2013 rainfall season is starting normally in most areas in the region.

Several areas in the region are starting the season with below-average vegetation conditions.

Forecasts call for below-normal rains in several of the areas affected by last season’s drought.

In focus

• Some 3 million people require food and livelihoods assistance in Syria. A surge in displacement took place between June and September;

• In September, flooding in Pakistan affected 4.5 million people; seven flood affected districts are in IPC phase 3 (crisis) or phase 4 (emergency);

• In the Democratic Republic of Congo, 5.4 million people require humanitarian assistance. Since June 2012, conflict has displaced 550,000 people in the East;

Maize grain prices rise as regional supplies tighten

Key messages

Release date: 05-09-2012

The Sixteenth Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-16) was convened from 23 to 24 August 2012 in Harare, Zimbabwe, by the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) to formulate consensus guidance for the 2012/2013 rainfall season over the SADC region. A rainfall outlook covering the period October 2012 to March 2013 was prepared by climate scientists from the National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC region, the CSC, and well as international cooperating partners.

Food insecurity to rise as staple food harvests fail to meet region’s requirements

Key messages

Although most parts of the region will remain food secure following the recent main season crop harvests, reduced harvests in areas affected by prolonged mid-season dry spells and /or floods have resulted in pockets of acute food insecurity in localized areas. In these parts of the region food access is already problematic for the affected households, and the lean season is expected to begin much earlier than the normal October/November start.

Highlights

Regional Food Security Outlook

• Late onset and prolonged dry spells resulted in depressed production in many parts of the region

• Projected 2012/13 regional maize surplus down 98% compared to 2011/12

• SADC harvest lowest in past 3 years

• Malnutrition levels remain very high in the SADC region

• Some food insecure populations require immediate humanitarian assistance

• 3% drop in 2012 cereal harvest compared to 201

Significant food price reductions contribute to stable food security conditions

Key Messages

• As projected in the June Outlook, generally favorable food security conditions are expected to prevail throughout the region from July to September 2012. Main harvests have increased the availability of staple foods at the household level and in local markets. As food prices continue to drop in line with season patterns, food access has improved for most market-dependent households.

Regional food security conditions to remain favorable through September 2012

Key Messages

• Favorable food security conditions are exist across the region; most staple foods are readily available and accessible from both own production and local markets. These conditions are expected to prevail through the Outlook period and beyond, especially in areas that had a favorable agricultural production season.