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01 Dec 2015 description

November 2015 – Trends

Deteriorated situations

Bangladesh, France, Kosovo, Lebanon, Nepal, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela

Improved situations

Burkina Faso, Myanmar

December 2015 – Watchlist

Conflict risk alerts


  • Conflict resolution opportunities
01 Dec 2015 description

BALTIMORE, Dec. 1, 2015—Lutheran World Relief, an international NGO working in 35 countries to develop sustainable solutions to poverty and food insecurity, marked #GivingTuesday by releasing its 2016 Early Warning Forecast of regions it is monitoring for potential humanitarian crises over the coming year.

01 Dec 2015 description

Snapshot 25 November–1 December 2015

  • Cameroon: New data indicate that 158,316 people are internally displaced – this is 65,000 more than the previous estimate. The vast majority have been displaced by Boko Haram-related violence, with fewer than 15% displaced by flooding and other natural disasters. Movement stays within Far North region, and Logone-et-Chari hosts around 60% of all IDPs.

01 Dec 2015 description
  • As of 30 November, the funding gap of the UN-coordinated inter-agency appeals is US$10.2 billion which means that 51 per cent of the required funds remain unmet.

  • During November, newly reported contributions to FTS totalled $241.3 million for humanitarian response: $68.4 million for South Sudan, $27.9 million for Iraq, and $13.3 million for Lebanon. So far in 2015, $2.2 billion in pledges remain outstanding.

26 Nov 2015 description


26 Nov 2015 description

Flooding risks continue to be elevated in Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Above-average seasonal rainfall has led to above-normal river levels along the Shabelle and Jubba River basins. Although a reduction of precipitation has been observed in mid-November, additional rains are expected to sustain the risk for flooding in the region.

24 Nov 2015 description

Somalia: Flooding has affected 132,000 people and displaced an estimated 60,000 as low-lying areas of Mogadishu have now been inundated, as well as areas of Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba. Main supply roads are impassable and some airstrips unusable The middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle River remain at high risk of flooding.

20 Nov 2015 description

Increased rainfall to bring some relief to anomalously dry areas of South Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Several consecutive weeks of above-average rainfall has increased the risk for flooding and river inundation in the White Nile, Jonglei, and Eastern Equatorial provinces of South Sudan.

18 Nov 2015 description

Millions of vulnerable households globally could face increased hunger and poverty due to droughts and floods as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9 to 12 months. Typically, this climatic condition develops during April-June and reaches maximum strength during December-February; this event could be the most powerful on record (Earth Institute 2015).

17 Nov 2015 description

Yemen: 14.4 million people are now food insecure: two million more than in June and four million more than before the escalation of conflict in March. 7.6 million people are severely food insecure. Heavy fighting continues, in particular in Al Dhalee and Taizz governorates. Peace talks between Houthi and government representatives, which were expected to begin mid-November, are yet to take place.

16 Nov 2015 description
report UN Children's Fund

NUEVA YORK/GINEBRA, 10 de noviembre de 2015 – Alrededor de 11 millones de niños corren el riesgo de sufrir los efectos del hambre, las enfermedades y la falta de agua en África oriental y meridional como consecuencia de un aumento de la fuerza del fenómeno de El Niño, que también está causando sequías e inundaciones en varias zonas de Asia, el Pacífico y América Latina, advirtió UNICEF el martes.

13 Nov 2015 description

Elevated risks of flooding in Kenya, South Sudan, and Somalia

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Persistent belowaverage rainfall since August over several areas of Ghana, Togo, and Benin has led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. However, Increased rainfall since October has significantly improved ground conditions.

  2. Several consecutive weeks of above-average rainfall has increased the risk for flooding in the White Nile, Jonglei, and Eastern Equatorial provinces of South Sudan.

10 Nov 2015 description

Snapshot 4–10 November 2015

Nepal: Crossings on the India–Nepal border have been closed since late September as a result of protests, leading to fuel shortages that are severely hampering humanitarian assistance. Of particular concern are 400,000 people living in remote areas who cannot be reached during winter and need winterisation supplies. Hospitals in Terai region are reporting acute shortages of medicine, while food and cooking-gas shortages are reported across the country.

07 Nov 2015 description


An El Niño event has been occurring since March 2015 and is steadily strengthening as it approaches its maximum intensity in late 2015. This El Niño is forecasted to peak in December, before gradually ending in early 2016. There are indications that it could become one of the most intense El Niños of the past 30 years.

06 Nov 2015 description

Below-average early-season rainfall expected to continue in southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Persistently belowaverage rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Increased rainfall since October has resulted in improved ground conditions in the region.

04 Nov 2015 description

This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the third quarter of 2015 (July to September).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.

• FAO’s global cereal price index still continued to fall in Q3-2015, down 12.7 percent year-on-year and is now at 2010 levels.

03 Nov 2015 description

Snapshot 28 October – 3 November 2015

Syria: 1 million more people are in need of humanitarian assistance than a year ago, as the total is now at 13.5 million. 6.6 million people are internally displaced, with 120,000 newly displaced in Aleppo, Hama, and Idleb governorates. Shelter, food, and WASH are reported as priority needs for the newly displaced.

02 Nov 2015 description

WORKING DRAFT (11 November 2015)

Background and purpose

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has as its Strategic Objective 5 to “Increase the resilience of livelihoods to threats and crises”. In support of its national counterparts, FAO aims to address the current and future needs of vulnerable people affected by the 2015‒2016 El Niño event.

02 Nov 2015 description


The IASC Alert, Early Warning and Readiness report is produced bi-annually as an inter-agency effort by the Task Team on Preparedness and Resilience (TTPR) for IASC member agencies. The report highlights serious risks that were either identified as being of particular strategic operational concern or as having a high probability and impact on humanitarian needs. In addition to collaboratively assembling the report, the report includes an analysis of the state of readiness, prepared by OCHA, which is compared against each risk.

02 Nov 2015 description

October 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey

  • Improved situations

November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts

  • Conflict resolution opportunities