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01 Jul 2015 description

June 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Afghanistan, Chad, Kuwait, Myanmar, Tunisia

  • Improved situations
    Nepal

July 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts
    Burundi

    Conflict resolution opportunities

03 Feb 2015 description

The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.

29 Jan 2015 description

29 January 2015

Sudan and South Sudan's Merging conflicts

The conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan are increasingly merged. Halting drift toward a Uganda-Sudan proxy war on the Sudan-South Sudan border requires better coordination by regional organisations and more engagement by influential outside powers, notably China and the U.S., including via the UN Security Council. A UN-imposed arms embargo, improved border monitoring, and a UN panel of experts mandated to study the funding of South Sudan’s war are needed.

06 Jan 2015 description

December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.

02 Nov 2014 description

After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war.

02 Oct 2014 description

The U.S. expanded its aerial campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants in late September with strikes in Syria’s north and east. The operation, which targets both IS and fighters linked to al-Qaeda’s central leadership and the affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, risks alienating other rebel groups in Syria and strengthening support for IS.

02 Sep 2014 description

The fight for control of Libya between the Misrata-led Islamist-leaning coalition and the Zintan-led forces is escalating by the day. Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced in over six weeks of clashes and heavy artillery fire. The Misrata side emerged victorious in the battle over Tripoli’s international airport, taking control of the capital, and made advances around Benghazi, but the larger political divide remains unresolved.

02 Aug 2014 description

Increasing Israeli-Palestinian tensions culminated in Israel launching "Operation Protective Edge" in Gaza in early July (see our latest report and commentary). The assault, which started as an aerial campaign and was later extended to include ground operations, reportedly killed more than 1,400 Palestinians throughout the month while 64 Israelis were killed in clashes inside the Gaza Strip and by Hamas rocket fire. Several attempts at reaching a ceasefire agreement failed in July.

02 Jun 2014 description

On 22 May Thailand’s military seized power – having two days earlier declared martial law – dismissed the government and arrested hundreds of politicians, democracy activists and journalists. The coup followed several months of violent pro- and anti-government protests. On 7 May the Constitutional Court had sacked caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra over alleged abuse of power in a move her party decried as a “judicial coup”

26 Nov 2013 description

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

02 Oct 2013 description

A terrorist attack by Somali militant group al-Shabaab on the Westgate shopping mall in Kenya left at least 67 dead and hundreds injured. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack was in retaliation for Kenya’s military action in Somalia over the past two years, and vowed that this attack would be the first of many. The attack heralds a difficult period for Kenya, with the risk of recriminations high, despite President Uhuru Kenyatta’s call for national unity (see our commentary).

24 Jun 2013 description

Bolder action was needed on the part of the international community — and the Security Council in particular — to end political and ethnic violence that had been on the rise in Sudan since the South declared independence nearly two years ago, said representatives of several non-governmental organizations as they introduced their reports on the matter at a Headquarters press conference today.

18 Jun 2013 description

Africa Report N°204
18 Jun 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

14 Feb 2013 description

Only a comprehensive solution can end Sudan’s vicious civil wars that are exacting a horrendous toll on the country and its peoples.

29 Nov 2012 description

Nairobi/Brussels | 29 Nov 2012

Last week’s arrests of senior security figures for allegedly plotting a coup showed how close Sudan is to even greater violence and disintegration. Only managed but fundamental governance reform can help it escape chronic conflict and humanitarian misery.

31 May 2012 description

ƒBurundi Human rights activist Pierre Claver Mbonimpa late May reportedly discovered President Nkurunziza acquitted in 2011 by Supreme Court in total secrecy for 1998 atrocities, effectively awarding amnesty; Mbonimpa said move constitutes procedural irregularity as affair was supposed to be addressed in Truth and Reconciliation. Opposition ADC leaders, ruling party members, former heads of state, civil society met 28 May at leadership retreat, sparking hope for political dialogue.

03 May 2012 description

On 12 April soldiers deposed the government in Guinea-Bissau, marking another coup in a country in which no leader since independence has completed a full term. Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior, widely expected to win the presidential run-off election scheduled for 29 April, and interim President Raimundo Pereira were detained by the military junta for two weeks, before their release to Côte d’Ivoire. The coup was swiftly condemned by the international community, with ECOWAS imposing sanctions and threatening force to restore civilian rule.