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19 Aug 2016 description

Heavy rains expected to further increase risk of flooding in West and East Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. The persistence of above-average rainfall continues to increase both short-term and long-term rainfall surpluses and trigger flooding throughout many areas in Sudan, South Sudan and western Ethiopia. Above-average rainfall is forecast to continue over the region, further worsening the potential for flooding over many downstream areas of eastern Sudan during the next week.

12 Aug 2016 description

Flooding risks remain over East and West Africa, while Central America remains drier than normal

Africa Weather Hazards

06 Aug 2016 description

The passage of Tropical Storm EARL expected to partially mitigate dryness over Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Consistent and aboveaverage rain over the past few weeks has led to moisture surpluses throughout much of Eastern Africa. Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, likely to elevate the River Nile and Al Gash River levels further and potentially resulting in flooding over many areas of Sudan during the next week.

31 Jul 2016 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was good in June with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria and reduced purchasing power for livestock in the Sahel (Page 3).

29 Jul 2016 description
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Heavy rains may lead to flooding in East and West Africa, dryness persists in Central America

  1. Consistent and above average rain over the past few weeks has led to moisture surpluses throughout much of Eastern Africa. Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, which is likely to raise the River Nile and Al Gash River levels further and potentially result in flooding over many areas of Sudan during the next week.

09 Jul 2016 description

Slight relief to dryness possible over some parts of Guatemala and Honduras

Africa Weather Hazards

Above-average rain fell over the far western West Africa and many parts of the Sahel.

Abundant rain expected in western Ethiopia during the next week.

02 Jul 2016 description

KEY MESSAGES

  • In West Africa, market availability was good in May with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria and reduced purchasing power for livestock purchases in the Sahel (Page 3).

01 Jul 2016 description

Global Overview – Trends and Outlook

01 Jul 2016 description

Little relief to dryness expected over Guatemala and Honduras

Africa Weather Hazards

24 Jun 2016 description

Substantial rain returned to Uganda and the Lake Victoria region this past week

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has resulted in drought across parts of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The potential for recovery remains unlikely.

  2. Consistently below-normal rainfall over the past 4 weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for portions of Uganda and western Kenya. This pattern has resulted in low soil moisture and poor vegetation health index values.

10 Jun 2016 description

Increased rainfall to alleviate dryness in areas of West Africa and Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite increased rainfall over some areas of the Gulf of Guinea over the past fews weeks, low and erratic rainfall in April and May has led to growing moisture deficits over Liberia and parts of Sierra Leone.

04 Jun 2016 description

Strategic Assessment

The global terrorist threat continued to evolve rapidly in 2015, becoming increasingly decentralized and diffuse. Terrorist groups continued to exploit an absence of credible and effective state institutions, where avenues for free and peaceful expression of opinion were blocked, justice systems lacked credibility, and where security force abuses and government corruption went unchecked.

02 Jun 2016 description

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, market availability was good in April with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria.

01 Jun 2016 description

The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff.

02 May 2016 description

The month saw fighting escalate again in Syria and Afghanistan, and erupt in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces. In Bangladesh, election violence and killings by extremist groups showed how new heights of government-opposition rivalry and state repression have benefitted violent political party wings and extremist groups alike. Political tensions intensified in Iraq and Macedonia, and security forces severely supressed opposition protests in the Republic of Congo and Gambia.

02 Apr 2016 description

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election.

02 Mar 2016 description

The month saw conflict continue to rage in Turkey’s south east between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), looking likely to further escalate in March. Afghanistan and Somalia both saw armed insurgencies capture new territories. In Africa, political tensions rose in Chad, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, while in Venezuela, deadlock between the opposition-held parliament and government has brought the country closer to political and economic implosion.

02 Feb 2016 description

The month saw an intensification of Yemen’s war, amid heightened regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran complicating prospects for peace. Political tensions increased in Haiti, Guinea-Bissau and Moldova, where protests over endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in the government could escalate. In Africa, Boko Haram’s deadly attacks increased in northern Cameroon, and Burkina Faso was hit by an unprecedented terror attack.

27 Jan 2016 description

Genetic diversity of livestock can help feed a hotter, harsher world

Despite growing interest in safeguarding biodiversity of livestock and poultry,genetic erosion continues

04 Jan 2016 description

December 2015 – Trends

- Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger

- Improved situations

January 2016 – Watchlist

- Conflict risk alerts

Burundi

- Conflict resolution opportunities

Libya