Despite a small increase in moisture during the last week, many areas in the Greater Horn remain anomalously dry.
Suppressed seasonal rains lead to strengthening moisture deficits across several regions in southern Africa.
On 3 November riots broke out in several areas of the capital Lusaka. The protests were against the dismissal of the ruling Patriotic Front’s (PF) secretary-general, Edgar Lungu, by interim President Guy Scott, the acting leader until elections take place.
As the rainy season starts, the Government of Mozambique is preparing for the possibility of floods and has set aside US$32 million of its national budget to deal with the possibility of flooding.
Mozambique's ruling party Frelimo won the 15 October presidential elections, with their candidate, Filipe Nyusi, recieving 57.3 per cent of the votes. In the simultaneous parliamentary elections, Frelimo won 144 seats, Renamo won 89 seats and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) 17 seats. Voter turnout was estimated at about 49 per cent.
According to FEWSNET, regional cereal production estimates for 2013/14 show an increased availability by 17 per cent above last year and 19 per cent above the past five-year average. Cereal production is also 2 per cent above the regional annual requirements.
In Focus: Southern Africa Climate Outlook
The situation in Lesotho remains calm but tense. It is being reported that Lieutenant General Tlali Kamoli is refusing to negotiate an end to the political stalemate. South Africa and SADC are still very much committed to dialogue to resolve the current situation.
In Focus: Mozambique
The SADC Regional Climate Outlook for the rainfall season 2014/15 predicts normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the region this rainfall season (October 2014 to March 2015).
On 28 August a swarm of locusts invaded the capital Antananarivo. No significant crop damage has been reported, but the situation draws attention to the need for continued support for the three-year anti-locust campaign, which faces a funding gap of US$ 10 million.
A Cabinet Commission Review found that during the 2013/2014 flood season, all provinces with the exception of Namibe recorded rains with considerable material and human damage, including the destruction of 6,317 houses, affecting more than 70,000 people.
A military intervention named “Operation Coup d’Arret” was undertaken in the south, in response to cattle raiding incidents. During the military intervention 62 dahalo were killed and 32 others arrested. IDPs have reportedly started returning home as security conditions have improved in the affected area.
Further support is being provided to authorities in assisting the 1,400 people displaced by clashes between the two villages of Andranondambo and Ambatotsivala in Androy, southern Madagascar, which took place on 8 May, including distribution of food, health and non-food items.
An earthquake measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale was recorded in Antananarivo on 27 May.
The epicenter of the quake was 45 km from the capital, but no damage was recorded.
Earthquakes occur almost daily in Madagascar, which recorded 1571 earthquakes since 2011, of which 28 measured more than 4 on the Richter scale.
Support is being provided to authorities in assisting the 1,400 people displaced by clashes between the two villages of Andranondambo and Ambatotsivala in Androy, southern Madagascar, which took place on 8 May.
The Livelihood Zone Map for Mozambique is the result of secondary data review and key informant workshops in October and November 2013.
A livelihood zone is an area within which people share broadly the same pattern of livelihood, including options for obtaining food and income and market opportunities. A livelihood zoning is essential for the following reasons:
Locally heavy rainfall may ease moisture deficits in parts of western Angola
Africa Weather Hazards
- Poorly distributed seasonal rainfall since February has led to deteriorating ground conditions in western Angola. These long-term moisture deficits may negatively impact developing crops and pastoral areas. However, precipitation forecasts indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall in the Benguela and Cuanza Sul provinces, which may provide some relief to moisture stress in the country.
Average to above average seasonal rainfall continues throughout many parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
The weakening of precipitation associated with the departure of the monsoon was observed across southern Africa.
Moderate Tropical Cyclone Hellen reportedly affected around 8,800 people to date, according to ongoing assessments by the General Directorate of Civil Protection (DGSC) and the Red Crescent. Government is leading the response with the assistance of UN Agencies and the Red Crescent.
Weakened Tropical Cyclone Hellen expected to make landfall in Mozambique
Africa Weather Hazards
Locally heavy rainfall throughout central Tanzania during the last seven days has resulted in isolated flooding, damages to infrastructure, displaced populations, and damages to crops and livestock in the Kagera, Singida, and Dodoma provinces.
- The continued suppression of rainfall suggests an early cessation of the monsoon over parts of southern Africa.
- Increased rains observed over the Afar and highland regions of Ethiopia during late March.
1) Heavy and above-average rains over the past few weeks have increased rainfall surpluses and resulted in flooding across the Omusati region along the Angola-Namibian border. The inundation has led to the closure of several schools in the area. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast to continue during the next week.
Message sent on behalf of Mr. Ignacio Leon-Garcia
Head of OCHA Regional Office for Southern Africa
This map presents the estimated total rainfall accumulation for Mozambique, Madagascar and the southern part of Tanzania covering the period 20th to 25th March 2014. This total estimate was derived from the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) precipitation dataset at a spatial resolution of approximately 0.25 degrees for this region. It is possible that precipitation levels may have been underestimated for local areas, and is not a substitute for ground station measurements.
A decrease in rainfall has been recorded over Southern Africa during the past week.
A favorable start of the March-May season has been observed over the Greater Horn of Africa.