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30 Sep 2016 description

Tropical cyclone Matthew expected to impact Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali.

  2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits.

02 Sep 2016 description

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

Global Overview, August 2016

12 Aug 2016 description

Flooding risks remain over East and West Africa, while Central America remains drier than normal

Africa Weather Hazards

06 Aug 2016 description

The passage of Tropical Storm EARL expected to partially mitigate dryness over Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Consistent and aboveaverage rain over the past few weeks has led to moisture surpluses throughout much of Eastern Africa. Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, likely to elevate the River Nile and Al Gash River levels further and potentially resulting in flooding over many areas of Sudan during the next week.

01 Jul 2016 description

Global Overview – Trends and Outlook

01 Jul 2016 description

Little relief to dryness expected over Guatemala and Honduras

Africa Weather Hazards

24 Jun 2016 description

Substantial rain returned to Uganda and the Lake Victoria region this past week

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has resulted in drought across parts of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The potential for recovery remains unlikely.

  2. Consistently below-normal rainfall over the past 4 weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for portions of Uganda and western Kenya. This pattern has resulted in low soil moisture and poor vegetation health index values.

04 Jun 2016 description

Strategic Assessment

The global terrorist threat continued to evolve rapidly in 2015, becoming increasingly decentralized and diffuse. Terrorist groups continued to exploit an absence of credible and effective state institutions, where avenues for free and peaceful expression of opinion were blocked, justice systems lacked credibility, and where security force abuses and government corruption went unchecked.

01 Jun 2016 description

The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff.

02 May 2016 description

The month saw fighting escalate again in Syria and Afghanistan, and erupt in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces. In Bangladesh, election violence and killings by extremist groups showed how new heights of government-opposition rivalry and state repression have benefitted violent political party wings and extremist groups alike. Political tensions intensified in Iraq and Macedonia, and security forces severely supressed opposition protests in the Republic of Congo and Gambia.

02 Apr 2016 description

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election.

02 Feb 2016 description

The month saw an intensification of Yemen’s war, amid heightened regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran complicating prospects for peace. Political tensions increased in Haiti, Guinea-Bissau and Moldova, where protests over endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in the government could escalate. In Africa, Boko Haram’s deadly attacks increased in northern Cameroon, and Burkina Faso was hit by an unprecedented terror attack.

04 Jan 2016 description

December 2015 – Trends

- Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger

- Improved situations

January 2016 – Watchlist

- Conflict risk alerts

Burundi

- Conflict resolution opportunities

Libya

01 Dec 2015 description

November 2015 – Trends

Deteriorated situations

Bangladesh, France, Kosovo, Lebanon, Nepal, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela

Improved situations

Burkina Faso, Myanmar

December 2015 – Watchlist

Conflict risk alerts

Venezuela

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
02 Nov 2015 description

October 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey

  • Improved situations
    Iran

November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Turkey

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
30 Oct 2015 description

Slow start to rainy season in southern Africa, flooding risks remain in Guatemala, Somalia, and Ethiopia

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Persistently below average rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Côte d’Ivoire,
    Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to an increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions, resulting in drought.

16 Oct 2015 description

Flooding risks continue in Central America; heavy snow forecast for Central Asia

Africa Overview

Second season rains have arrived for most bimodal areas of West Africa

09 Oct 2015 description

Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa

Summary

01 Oct 2015 description

September 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen

  • Improved situations
    Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia

October 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts
    Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic

  • Conflict resolution opportunities
    Colombia

01 Sep 2015 description

August 2015 – Trends

  • Deteriorated situations

Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Kashmir, Lebanon, Nepal, Yemen

  • Improved situations

Guinea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka

September 2015 – Watchlist

  • Conflict risk alerts

Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Iraq, Nepal, Yemen

  • Conflict resolution opportunities

    South Sudan