GIEWS global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

11 February 2011

Heavy rainfall recorded in December and January (Figure 1) across Southern Africa has caused water-logging and localised crop losses in parts of the sub-region, particularly in Lesotho and across the Zambezi basin. The torrential rains have resulted in elevated river levels, with many regions remaining on alert due to increased possibility of further flooding in downstream areas. However, vegetation conditions,

- The 14th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook forum (SARCOF-14) predicted increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall in the first half of the rainy season, October-November 2010. However, there is high likelihood of below-normal to normal rainfall in January-March 2011.

- Prices of fuel have dropped by roughly 5 percent compared to the previous quarter; and on an annual basis (between September09 and September10), there is a drop of 5 percent in petrol prices, while diesel and an paraffin prices remained unchanged.

=B7 Results of the of the crop forecasting by the Bureau of Statistics show higher maize production (98,035 MT) compared to last year's production of 57,127 MT.

=B7 The LVAC has undertaken its annual post-harvest livelihoods assessment from 25 May - 2 June and data analysis is ongoing.

=B7 Households assisted with planting inputs through the EU Food Facility generally planted larger areas than those not assisted.

Madagascar

=B7 Producer price of rice is currently very volatile in main rice granary of Madagascar.

=B7 Following the passage of The MTS Joel,

October to March constitutes the main rainfall season over most of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region. From October to December 2009, most of the western parts of conterminous SADC will have an increased chance of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall with the exception of extreme west of Angola, northern Mozambique, bulk of Malawi and eastern parts of Zambia which are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. The eastern part of conterminous SADC is likely to have an increased chance of receiving normal to above-normal

The Community and Household Surveillance (CHS) is a biannual survey that is conducted during the post-harvest and the lean season each year, with the main objective of monitoring the short- and longterm effects of food assistance interventions. Since January, 2007, the CHS system has now been anchored in the Disaster Management Authority (DMA), with the objective of broadening its objectives especially in strengthening and complimenting LVAC food security monitoring initiatives in the country. Round 11 of CHS was conducted in October 2008 and covered 60 WFP final

Part I: Operational Requirements and Shortfalls

Overview of the 2008 Programme of Work

As the second semester of 2008 begins, the World Food Programme continues to focus its attention on the more than 81 million beneficiaries requiring food assistance. The total cost of 2008 activities is just over US$4.78 billion. Considering carry-over stocks and resources mobilized so far in 2008, and considering US$1 billion for prepositioning of food stocks for 2009, the total shortfall at this time of the year is US$2.71 billion.

Malnutrition remains the world's most serious health problem and the single biggest contributor to child mortality. Nearly one-third of children in the developing world are either underweight or stunted, and more than 30 percent of the developing world's population suffers from micronutri-ent deficiencies. Unless policies and priorities are changed, the scale of the problem will prevent many countries from achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) -- especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where malnutrition is increasing, and in South Asia, where malnutrition

In this introductory part, countries in the subregion facing serious overall food shortages or other causes

This is the second issue for 2005 of this report prepared by the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on the food supply situation and cereal import and food aid requirements for all countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The report is designed to provide the latest analysis and information on the food situation in these countries to governments, international organizations and other institutions engaged in humanitarian operations.

In this introductory part, countries in the subregion facing serious food shortages are listed with principal