HIGHLIGHTS

 The region is exposed to a range of environmental and social pressures.

 47 defined international humanitarian emergencies were identified between 2000 and 2012.

 The results highlight the short recurrence intervals for major shocks and the annual co-occurrence of multiple shocks.

 The research signals a transition from conditions of armed conflict seen in the 1980s and 1990s to social conflicts, often in urban areas, particularly in national capitals.

In Somalia, needs will be highest among IDPs and the pastoral destitute when the lean season approaches in October.

Dry spell continues, compromising yields in several countries

KEY MESSAGES

• A prolonged dry spell in the southern half of the region has continued for over 2 months in some areas, resulting in crop yield reductions and dampened harvest expectations.

• Though prospects remain good in some parts of the region, factors that have compromised expected harvests in other areas include an erratic onset of rains, armyworm outbreaks, input distribution challenges, along with flooding and waterlogging.

HIGHLIGHTS

• FAO’s first forecast for world wheat production in 2013 stands at 690 million tonnes, about 28 million tonnes up from 2012 and the second largest crop on record. The increase is expected mostly in Europe, driven by an expansion in area in response to high prices, and in some countries due to an expected recovery in yields from last year’s below-average levels.

• The international cereal prices in recent months have followed mixed trends with rice prices rising and wheat declining, while maize prices remaining generally steady.

Most households will start accessing food during the main season harvest from April to June which will result in the stabilization of food prices.

The onset of rains in Lesotho was three to four dekads late in most of the country, and as of early January, the area planted was 40 per cent below the five-year average.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Firmer production estimates for 2012 confirm tightening wheat and maize supplies while the outlook for rice remains positive. In spite of a contraction in overall cereal utilization in 2012/13, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline by 2 percentage points from the previous season.

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Generally favourable start to the 2012/13 cropping season

• Erratic rains during the previous 2011/12 season resulted in a significant drop in the national cereal output

• High maize meal prices persist

• Low cereal stocks and high food prices contribute to the deterioration in household food security

KEY MESSAGES

The 2012/2013 rainfall season is starting normally in most areas in the region.

Several areas in the region are starting the season with below-average vegetation conditions.

Forecasts call for below-normal rains in several of the areas affected by last season’s drought.