Welcome to the first trend report for ACLED Asia. In these periodic publications, the ACLED Asia team will discuss and analyze the real-time conflict event trends that are occurring throughout South and South-East Asia. ACLED Asia will release real-time data for eleven states with various conflict profiles. These states include India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam,
Thailand and Myanmar. See Figure 1. Data for January and February 2015 are now available from the CEPSA website and the ACLED website.
Migration has been and always will be a fact of life; we have to ensure that it is also a safe process that does not negatively impact the health of migrants and host communities. Population mobility influences, guides and supports economic and social development, social stability, and the greater integration of global processes in countries of origin, transit, destination and return. The healthier migrants are, the more efficient and balanced the future of our integrated and globalized world will be.
River flooding will affect more people and cause significantly more damage by 2030, as climate change and socioeconomic development accelerate. In South Asia alone, an estimated 15 million will be affected, say experts
NATURAL DISASTERS AND CONFLICTS IN ASIA-PACIFIC
FEWER LIVES LOST
In 2014, Asia and the Pacific experienced 126 natural disasters, which affected a total of 85 million people. Significantly, casualties were a quarter of what they were in 2013, with nearly 4,000 people killed by disasters in the region. Floods and landslides were the primary causes of death according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
· During Q4-2014, FAO’s global cereal price index decreased by 7% year-on-year, but on average, it remained at the level of the previous quarter.
· Real prices of maize have fallen by 14% since Q4-2013. They are up 1% from Q3-2014 after the low in September/October.
· On average, real prices of wheat remained constant between Q3 and Q4-2014. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up thanks to increased production and beginning stocks; thus price levels in Q4-2014 are 17% lower than a year ago.
The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.
This update seeks to support growth in innovative policy, practice and partnerships in humanitarian action to better communicate with disaster-affected communities. Readers are encouraged to forward this email through their own networks.
South Asia is one of the most disaster-prone and conflict-affected regions in the world, with Afghanistan and India belonging to the top ten countries with the highest number of reported natural disasters in a year1. The most common disasters in the region are floods, drought, landslides, avalanches and earthquakes.
Nigeria: Violence has escalated significantly in the northeast. Boko Haram killed more than 2,100 people in the first 11 days of the year. Most were killed in an attack on the town of Baga and surrounding settlements in Borno state, on Lake Chad. Up to 20,000 people were displaced. Other attacks took place in Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Potiskum.
Snapshot 17 December – 6 January
Nigeria: A series of suspected Boko Haram attacks in Borno and neighbouring states have resulted in more than 80 deaths, 225 kidnapped, hundreds of homes burneds and thousands displaced.
Central African Republic: Nearly 200,000 people need nutrition assistance. Over 36,000 people are trapped in seven enclaves across the country; a group of 474 Fulani who fled to Yaloke months ago and now cannot leave are in particular need.
December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.
Volcanic Explosivity in Asia-Pacific
This map shows the density of volcanic eruptions based on the explosivity index for each eruption and the time period of the eruption. Eruption information is spread to 100km beyond point source to indicate areas that could be affected by volcanic emissions or ground shaking.
Risk assessment for an area exposed to multiple hazards requires solutions to compare the risks. This map was generated by adding the value of mortality to the cumulated risk of cyclones, earthquakes, floods and landslides. Categories of risk based on expected annual losses.
This product was designed by UNEP/GRID Europe for the Global Assessment Report on Risk Reduction (GAR). It was modeled using global data.
Credit: GIS processing UNEP/GRID-Europe. http://preview.grid.unep.ch
Earthquake Intensity Risk Zones
This map shows earthquake intensity zones in accordance with the 1956 version of the Modified Mercalli Scale (MM), describing the effects of an earthquake on the surface of the earth and integrating numerous parameters such as ground acceleration, duration of an earthquake, and subsoil effects. It also includes historical earthquake reports.
Physical Exposure to Drought
Drought is a phenomenon that affects more people globally than any other natural hazard. Unlike aridity, which refers to a semi-permanent condition of low precipitation (desert regions), drought results from the accumulated effect of deficient precipitation over a prolonged period of time.
The units used in this product refer to the expected average annual population (2010 as the year of reference) exposed (inhabitants). The dataset includes an estimate of the annual physical exposure to drought. It is based on three sources:
Tropical Storm Risk Zones
This map was derived from the Munich Reinsurance Company's World Map of Natural Hazards and shows tropical storm intensity based on the five wind speeds of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.