This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the third quarter of 2015 (July to September).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.
• FAO’s global cereal price index still continued to fall in Q3-2015, down 12.7 percent year-on-year and is now at 2010 levels.
October 2015 – Trends
Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey
November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
- Conflict resolution opportunities
September 2015 – Trends
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen
Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia
October 2015 – Watchlist
Conflict risk alerts
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic
Conflict resolution opportunities
From the director
2014 was a devastating year with record numbers of people living in internal displacement induced by conflict, violence, disasters and natural hazards. Meeting the immense needs generated by these calamities remains one of the most challenging humanitarian tasks faced by the international community in modern times. To address these serious situations, IDMC in 2014 published 20 country overviews, 2 global reports, 8 thematic/technical reports, 32 blogs, 8 briefing/discussion papers, 22 submissions to human rights bodies.
14 September 2015
High-level Dignitaries from Sri Lanka, Mexico and the United Kingdom Address the Council
August 2015 – Trends
- Deteriorated situations
Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Kashmir, Lebanon, Nepal, Yemen
- Improved situations
Guinea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka
September 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Iraq, Nepal, Yemen
Conflict resolution opportunities
· FAO’s global cereal price index continued to fall in Q2-2015, down 19 percent year-on-year.
· The real price of wheat dropped a further 9 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 33 percent lower than in Q2-2014, thanks to increased global supply and lower consumption.
· The real price of maize has fallen by 3 percent since Q1-2015 and is 21 percent lower than inQ2-2014. However, global production for 2015/16 is set to be lower and thus prices are likely to rise.
In Q1-2015, FAO’s global cereal price index fell a further 13 percent year-on-year. It is now 5 percent lower than in Q4-2014.
Real prices of wheat have fallen by 10 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 20 percent lower than in Q1-2014 and at their lowest levels since mid-2010, thanks to large supplies, favourable production forecasts and strong export competition.
UNDP recognizes governance as a key unresolved issue in both the configuration and the reduction of disaster risk. With the aim of protecting development investments and ultimately building people’s resilience, UNDP has made strengthening disaster risk governance a cornerstone of its efforts to understand, reduce and manage risk.
· During Q4-2014, FAO’s global cereal price index decreased by 7% year-on-year, but on average, it remained at the level of the previous quarter.
· Real prices of maize have fallen by 14% since Q4-2013. They are up 1% from Q3-2014 after the low in September/October.
· On average, real prices of wheat remained constant between Q3 and Q4-2014. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up thanks to increased production and beginning stocks; thus price levels in Q4-2014 are 17% lower than a year ago.
The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.
December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.
The role of faith in the humanitarian sector is not easy to measure. Faiths generally advocate welcoming the stranger and there are many organisations and individuals inspired by their faith or religion to provide protection and assistance. Yet it is easier to measure the activities inspired by faith than to measure the difference that having that faith makes, and secularly inspired standards for such activities can appear to be in tension with the faith inspiration. FMR 48 includes 36 articles on ‘Faith’ plus seven ‘general’ articles.
After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war.
During the third quarter of 2014, the global cereal price index decreased by 13% year-on-year, down by 11% compared to the previous quarter.
Real prices of maize have fallen by almost a third since last year. They are down 18% from Q2-2014, reaching levels seen in early 2010.
Real prices of wheat dropped by 18% from Q2 to Q3-2014, falling to mid-2010 levels.
Real prices of rice are up 7% since Q2-2014.
Biannual FAO Food Outlook report and new Food Price Index released
9 October 2014, Rome - Food markets are more stable and prices for most agricultural commodities are sharply lower than they have been in recent years, according to the latest edition of FAO's biannual Food Outlook report and a new update to the Organization's monthly Food Price Index, both out today.
The U.S. expanded its aerial campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants in late September with strikes in Syria’s north and east. The operation, which targets both IS and fighters linked to al-Qaeda’s central leadership and the affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, risks alienating other rebel groups in Syria and strengthening support for IS.
The fight for control of Libya between the Misrata-led Islamist-leaning coalition and the Zintan-led forces is escalating by the day. Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced in over six weeks of clashes and heavy artillery fire. The Misrata side emerged victorious in the battle over Tripoli’s international airport, taking control of the capital, and made advances around Benghazi, but the larger political divide remains unresolved.
Increasing Israeli-Palestinian tensions culminated in Israel launching "Operation Protective Edge" in Gaza in early July (see our latest report and commentary). The assault, which started as an aerial campaign and was later extended to include ground operations, reportedly killed more than 1,400 Palestinians throughout the month while 64 Israelis were killed in clashes inside the Gaza Strip and by Hamas rocket fire. Several attempts at reaching a ceasefire agreement failed in July.
From the director
I had the pleasure of joining the IDMC team in 2013, taking the helm from Kate Halff, who after four years of the excellent work and dedicated service, left the organisation in May.
2013 was another year of turmoil for many. Conflicts and disasters worldwide forced millions of people to flee their homes, leaving many stuck in limbo within the borders of their own country.