June 2015 – Trends
Afghanistan, Chad, Kuwait, Myanmar, Tunisia
July 2015 – Watchlist
Conflict risk alerts
Conflict resolution opportunities
In Q1-2015, FAO’s global cereal price index fell a further 13 percent year-on-year. It is now 5 percent lower than in Q4-2014.
Real prices of wheat have fallen by 10 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 20 percent lower than in Q1-2014 and at their lowest levels since mid-2010, thanks to large supplies, favourable production forecasts and strong export competition.
Snapshot 11–17 March 2015
Vanuatu: 24 people are confirmed dead so far after Tropical Cyclone Pam hit on 13 March. Shefa, Tafea, Malampa, and Penama are among the worst affected provinces. Access challenges are significant.
Cameroon: The number of people internally displaced in the north has almost doubled since 10 February, to 117,000. This brings the number of displaced in Cameroon to an estimated 412,700, including 66,000 fleeing Boko Haram violence in Nigeria and the rest from the Central African Republic.
Migration has been and always will be a fact of life; we have to ensure that it is also a safe process that does not negatively impact the health of migrants and host communities. Population mobility influences, guides and supports economic and social development, social stability, and the greater integration of global processes in countries of origin, transit, destination and return. The healthier migrants are, the more efficient and balanced the future of our integrated and globalized world will be.
Iraq: 26,000 people have fled fighting between Islamic State and Iraqi security forces in Tikrit for Samarra. Food, shelter, health and WASH needs are priorities. More than 100 families have arrived in Al Dour, located between Tikrit and Samarra, and thousands have fled to central and southern governorates.
South Sudan: Heavy fighting between government and opposition was reported in Upper Nile state, and government troops took control of Wadakona town. Many civilians are reported trapped. Peace talks have collapsed.
Afghanistan: Heavy snowfall has caused avalanches in northern, central and eastern Afghanistan; 280 people have died. Panshir province is most affected. Communication lines have been disrupted in places, power supplies to Kabul have been cut. Priority needs are for NFIs and emergency shelter; access to isolated areas is difficult.
Snapshot 18-24 February 2015
Myanmar: 90,000 people are now reported to have been displaced by continuing violence between government troops and multiple armed groups in Kokang, Shan state. Aid organisations have been subject to attack – seven people were wounded in two separate incidents.
Snapshot 11–17 February 2015
Myanmar: Fighting between the Myanmar army and the MNDAA, an insurgent group in the Kokang area of Shan state, displaced tens of thousands of people. Some fled into central Myanmar, while between 30,000 and 50,000 are thought to have crossed into Nansan, Yunnan province, China.
Snapshot 4–10 February 2015
Guinea: An increase in Ebola case numbers has been reported for the second consecutive week. Resistance to the response remains high in Forecariah, worst affected by the outbreak; though ten prefectures have reported at least one incident of resistance. Clashes between armed forces and the community were reported in Matoto, Conakry.
Ten years have passed since the Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami of December 2004. With a view to gathering, learning and sharing from experiences of the 2004 earthquake and tsunami, and other disasters in the region that occurred between 1993 and 2013, the Tsunami Global Lessons Learned Project (TGLLP) was created. The project sought to deliver three principle outcomes: a global lessons learned study, a Discovery Channel documentary tracking the recovery, and a disaster recovery toolkit for recovery practitioners.
· During Q4-2014, FAO’s global cereal price index decreased by 7% year-on-year, but on average, it remained at the level of the previous quarter.
· Real prices of maize have fallen by 14% since Q4-2013. They are up 1% from Q3-2014 after the low in September/October.
· On average, real prices of wheat remained constant between Q3 and Q4-2014. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up thanks to increased production and beginning stocks; thus price levels in Q4-2014 are 17% lower than a year ago.
Snapshot 28 January – 3 February 2015
DRC: 30,000 refugees have fled CAR for Equateur province since December. In North Kivu, 18,000 new IDPs need humanitarian assistance; another 21,000 are in need in South Kivu. Nationwide, food security is worsening: over one-third of territories are in Crisis or Emergency phases.
The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.
Snapshot 21-27 January
Nigeria: Boko Haram attacks continue, with Borno state capital Maiduguri and nearby military bases targeted on 25 January. Security forces pushed BH back from Maiduguri, but further attacks are expected. BH also raided villages in Michika local government area, Adamawa state. There are reports that BH has forbidden the use of vehicles in areas under its control.
Snapshot 14–20 January
Cameroon: 50,000 people are estimated displaced due to the recent increase in Boko Haram (BH) attacks in the northern regions. In the past week, an attack on a military base in Kolofata resulted in 143 BH killed, subsequently, BH kidnapped 80 people from one village – with three killed and 24 later released. The conflict has escalated regionally, with Chad pledging military support in Cameroon’s fight against Boko Haram.
Nigeria: Violence has escalated significantly in the northeast. Boko Haram killed more than 2,100 people in the first 11 days of the year. Most were killed in an attack on the town of Baga and surrounding settlements in Borno state, on Lake Chad. Up to 20,000 people were displaced. Other attacks took place in Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Potiskum.
Three years after the fall of the former regime, the Libyan people find themselves no closer to realizing their aspirations for a better future. Security conditions continue to deteriorate and life remains hard, particularly for migrants.
According to IOM Libya Chief of Mission Othman Belbeisi, an estimated 150,000 migrant workers remain stranded in the country, but some progress is being made in helping the most vulnerable to return home voluntarily.
Snapshot 17 December – 6 January
Nigeria: A series of suspected Boko Haram attacks in Borno and neighbouring states have resulted in more than 80 deaths, 225 kidnapped, hundreds of homes burneds and thousands displaced.
Central African Republic: Nearly 200,000 people need nutrition assistance. Over 36,000 people are trapped in seven enclaves across the country; a group of 474 Fulani who fled to Yaloke months ago and now cannot leave are in particular need.
December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.