September 2015 – Trends
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen
Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia
October 2015 – Watchlist
Conflict risk alerts
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic
Conflict resolution opportunities
Super El Niño and climate change cause crop failures putting millions at risk of hunger
At least ten million poor people face hunger this year and next due to both droughts and erratic rains influenced by climate change and the likely development of a ‘super El Niño’.
The on-going El Niño event, officially declared in March, will remain active throughout 2015 and is very likely to extend into the first quarter of 2016.
The event is now strengthening towards its peak intensity which should be reached in late 2015. There is a significant chance that this event could be close or even exceed the strongest levels on record.
August 2015 – Trends
- Deteriorated situations
Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Kashmir, Lebanon, Nepal, Yemen
- Improved situations
Guinea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka
September 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Colombia/Venezuela, Guatemala, Iraq, Nepal, Yemen
Conflict resolution opportunities
· FAO’s global cereal price index continued to fall in Q2-2015, down 19 percent year-on-year.
· The real price of wheat dropped a further 9 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 33 percent lower than in Q2-2014, thanks to increased global supply and lower consumption.
· The real price of maize has fallen by 3 percent since Q1-2015 and is 21 percent lower than inQ2-2014. However, global production for 2015/16 is set to be lower and thus prices are likely to rise.
An El Nino event active since March 2015 will almost certainly last through 2015 and is likely to extend into early 2016.
The intensity of this event is increasing with a peak expected in the last quarter of 2015 and there is a significant chance that it may become one of the strongest events of the past 30 years.
In Q1-2015, FAO’s global cereal price index fell a further 13 percent year-on-year. It is now 5 percent lower than in Q4-2014.
Real prices of wheat have fallen by 10 percent over the last quarter. Prices are 20 percent lower than in Q1-2014 and at their lowest levels since mid-2010, thanks to large supplies, favourable production forecasts and strong export competition.
· During Q4-2014, FAO’s global cereal price index decreased by 7% year-on-year, but on average, it remained at the level of the previous quarter.
· Real prices of maize have fallen by 14% since Q4-2013. They are up 1% from Q3-2014 after the low in September/October.
· On average, real prices of wheat remained constant between Q3 and Q4-2014. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up thanks to increased production and beginning stocks; thus price levels in Q4-2014 are 17% lower than a year ago.
The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify.
December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended.
Les variétés améliorées doivent aller de pair avec des systèmes agricoles respectueux de l'environnement, conviennent des experts internationaux
19 décembre 2014, Rome – Les systèmes d'exploitation à base de céréales doivent entamer la transition vers l'agriculture durable si l'on veut qu'ils répondent un jour à une demande inégalée de maïs, de riz et de blé. Tel est l'un des messages clés d'une réunion, cette semaine à la FAO, d'un groupe d'éminents experts internationaux.
World experts agree improved crop varieties need to go hand-in-hand with eco-friendly farming systems
Rome, 19 December 2014 - Cereal-based farming systems must join the transition to sustainable agriculture if they are to meet unprecedented demand for maize, rice and wheat. That was one of the key messages to emerge from a meeting held by FAO this week and attended by leading crop production specialists.
A survey of TB diagnostic and treatment practices in eight countries
After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war.
The Desert Locust (SGR1 ) situation remained calm in September in summer breeding areas in the western outbreak region. Only a few adults and hoppers were reported in Mauritania, Niger and Chad. A similar situation may be present in northern Mali where surveys were not possible.
Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia remained calm during this month.
The U.S. expanded its aerial campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants in late September with strikes in Syria’s north and east. The operation, which targets both IS and fighters linked to al-Qaeda’s central leadership and the affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, risks alienating other rebel groups in Syria and strengthening support for IS.
The Desert Locust (SGR1) situation remained calm in winter, spring and summer breeding areas in the western outbreak region in August and only low density adults were reported in Mauritania, Niger and Chad, and a similar situation is highly likely in northern Mali where the ongoing security situation continuous undermining survey operations. No locusts were reported in Algeria, Libya, Morocco or Tunisia during this month.
Increasing Israeli-Palestinian tensions culminated in Israel launching "Operation Protective Edge" in Gaza in early July (see our latest report and commentary). The assault, which started as an aerial campaign and was later extended to include ground operations, reportedly killed more than 1,400 Palestinians throughout the month while 64 Israelis were killed in clashes inside the Gaza Strip and by Hamas rocket fire. Several attempts at reaching a ceasefire agreement failed in July.