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30 Nov 2016 description

HIGHLIGHTS

SEPTEMBER– NOVEMBER 2016 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS

  • The season started slowly in some areas.

  • During September to November, wetter than normal areas spread over the central and western Angola, eastern Botswana, north-eastern South Africa, northern Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland.

  • Seasonally average conditions occurred across north -western DRC, north and west of Tanzania, Madagascar and south Mozambique.

DJF2016/17 RAINFALL UPDATE OUTLOOK SUMMARY

22 Nov 2016 description

Highlights

  • Timely rains commenced in South Africa, Swaziland and eastern Botswana, resulting in planting in some areas and slight improvement in dam levels

  • Slow and erratic onset of rains was observed in northern parts of the region, and an improvement is expected by late November to early December

  • Shortfalls in commercial maize seed availability and farmers’ reduced purchasing power may negatively affect harvest prospects in several countries if unaddressed

Regional Summary

14 Nov 2016 description

Highlights:

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) maintained South Africa’s 2016/17 maize production estimate of 12.9 million tons, which is 72% higher than the 2015/16 crop (Agbiz, www.agbiz.co.za).)

14 Nov 2016 description

State of Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the Southern African Development Community

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

08 Nov 2016 description

About 74 percent of the US$2.9billion required for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Regional Humanitarian Appeal is yet to be raised as only US$757 million which translates to 26 percent has been raised by governments and partners.

The money raised so far includes US$222million from SADC governments US$535million from partners. The SADC Regional is facing an estimated cereal shortfall of 9.3million metric tonnes which will have to be sourced from within and outside the region to support the 28 million people requiring urgent humanitarian support.

08 Nov 2016 description

The negative impacts of the El Nino induced drought, the worst in 35 years, which has caused a humanitarian crisis affecting 39 million people or 13% of SADC population, continues to intensify. Several factors including depleted food reserves, rising food prices, lower commodity prices, slowing economic growth among other key factors, are exacerbating the situation. Staple food prices are rising due to the generally poor crop production over the past two years.

05 Nov 2016 description

Background

The Global Early Warning – Early Action (EWEA) report on food security and agriculture is developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The report is a part of FAO’s EWEA system, which aims to translate forecasts and early warnings into anticipatory action.

EWEA enables FAO to act early before disasters have happened to mitigate or even prevent their impact. By lessening damages to livelihoods and protecting assets and investments, FAO can help local livelihoods become more resilient to threats and crises.

13 Oct 2016 description
report World Bank, GFDRR

Foreword

As we write this, Africa is suffering from the strongest El Niño it has faced in decades, causing major floods and droughts throughout Africa, leading to rising economic losses and major impacts on the lives and livelihoods of millions across the continent. Countries across the continent are declaring states of emergency, and are calling on the international community for support.

10 Oct 2016 description

Key Messages

  • The El Niño induced drought resulted in 15 percent drop in regional cereal production from 29 million tonnes in 2015 to 26 million tonnes in 2016 which is about 11 percent decrease compared to the five-year average1 . Southern parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar as well as most of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia have been significantly affected by this drought.
    Approximately 40.8 million people (22.5% of rural population) will be food insecure in Southern Africa up to March 2017.

28 Sep 2016 description

Highlights

  • SADC declares Regional Drought Disaster and launches a Regional Humanitarian Appeal for assistance to support the ongoing and planned response efforts of its Member States.

  • The Humanitarian Appeal is a result of the negative impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought, the worst in 35 years,

27 Sep 2016 description

Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agrometeorology in 2016/2017

HIGHLIGHTS

  • SARCOF is predicting normal to above normal rainfall in the southern parts of the region, while normal to below normal rainfall is expected in the northern areas

  • The latest model forecasts have reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.

21 Sep 2016 description

Overview

The SADC region is experiencing a devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives. The region experienced a delayed onset of the 2015/2016, rainfall season, followed by erratic rains. Analysis of rainfall performance shows that the October to December 2015 period, which represents the first half of the cropping season, was the driest in more than 35 years in several southern parts of the region

Recommendations (Short-Term)

21 Sep 2016 description

Executive Summary

The region experienced in many parts of the countries, the below normal rainfall conditions depicted by the devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives in the Region.

The SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) had predicted, in August 2015, during SARCOF-19 the below normal rainfall conditions. This was consistent with the observed poor rainfall performance.

The current rainfall 2016/17 outlook is the opposite (reverse) of the last season.

21 Sep 2016 description

Summary

The El Niño weather event has been in a neutral phase since May. Nevertheless, it continues to have a devastating impact on vulnerable people in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the Dry Corridor in Central America, and Haiti in the Caribbean. This event will also cause long term consequences for public health, nutrition, livelihoods, water and sanitation.

29 Aug 2016 description

The Government of Mauritius, in cooperation with the African Union Commission (AUC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), will host a major conference of governments and partners in Africa which will examine progress in disaster risk reduction across the continent and the ongoing challenges of responding to extreme weather events which have left 60 million people in severe need across the region.

28 Aug 2016 description

Les disparités entre les genres coûtent quelque 95 milliards de dollars US par an en moyenne à l’Afrique subsaharienne et ont culminé à 105 milliards de dollars de pertes en 2014 (soit 6 % du PIB régional), compromettant de ce fait les efforts du continent en faveur d’un développement humain et d’une croissance économique inclusifs, indique le Rapport.

28 Aug 2016 description

Gender inequality is costing sub-Saharan Africa on average $US95 billion a year, peaking at US$105 billion in 2014– or six percent of the region’s GDP – jeopardising the continent’s efforts for inclusive human development and economic growth, according to the Africa Human Development Report 2016.

26 Aug 2016 description

SUMMARY

The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2016 and the January to March (JFM) 2017. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) northern Angola, southernmost of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the islands states of Seychelles and eastern-most Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall most of the season.

THE TWENTIETH ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM