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23 Oct 2016 description

Welcome to the October issue of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project’s (ACLED) Conflict Trends report. Each month, ACLED researchers gather, analyse and publish data on political violence in Africa in realtime. Weekly updates to realtime conflict event data are published on the ACLED website, and are also available through our research partners at Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS).

13 Oct 2016 description
report World Bank, GFDRR


As we write this, Africa is suffering from the strongest El Niño it has faced in decades, causing major floods and droughts throughout Africa, leading to rising economic losses and major impacts on the lives and livelihoods of millions across the continent. Countries across the continent are declaring states of emergency, and are calling on the international community for support.

10 Oct 2016 description

Key Messages

  • The El Niño induced drought resulted in 15 percent drop in regional cereal production from 29 million tonnes in 2015 to 26 million tonnes in 2016 which is about 11 percent decrease compared to the five-year average1 . Southern parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar as well as most of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia have been significantly affected by this drought.
    Approximately 40.8 million people (22.5% of rural population) will be food insecure in Southern Africa up to March 2017.

08 Oct 2016 description

Flood and landslide threats will continue after Matthew hit the Hispaniola region hard

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali

07 Oct 2016 description


  • The South African National Crop Committee’s (CEC) final maize production estimate for the 2015-16 harvest stands at 7.5 million tons, up by 3% from their previous estimate, but down by 24% from the previous season. More specifically, yellow and white maize production estimates were revised up by 5% and 2% from the previous estimates to 4.28 million tons and 3.25 million tons, respectively (Agbiz, www.agbiz.co.za).)

28 Sep 2016 description


  • SADC declares Regional Drought Disaster and launches a Regional Humanitarian Appeal for assistance to support the ongoing and planned response efforts of its Member States.

  • The Humanitarian Appeal is a result of the negative impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought, the worst in 35 years,

27 Sep 2016 description


  • In August, WFP assisted 100 percent of planned beneficiaries across Nsanje, Chikwawa and Balaka districts, through cash and in-kind distributions, though with only with half rations due to insufficient funding.

  • Food security continues to worsen with unusually high maize prices and people continuing to adopt negative coping measures to meet their food needs.

27 Sep 2016 description

Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agrometeorology in 2016/2017


  • SARCOF is predicting normal to above normal rainfall in the southern parts of the region, while normal to below normal rainfall is expected in the northern areas

  • The latest model forecasts have reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.

21 Sep 2016 description


The SADC region is experiencing a devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives. The region experienced a delayed onset of the 2015/2016, rainfall season, followed by erratic rains. Analysis of rainfall performance shows that the October to December 2015 period, which represents the first half of the cropping season, was the driest in more than 35 years in several southern parts of the region

Recommendations (Short-Term)

21 Sep 2016 description

Executive Summary

The region experienced in many parts of the countries, the below normal rainfall conditions depicted by the devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives in the Region.

The SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) had predicted, in August 2015, during SARCOF-19 the below normal rainfall conditions. This was consistent with the observed poor rainfall performance.

The current rainfall 2016/17 outlook is the opposite (reverse) of the last season.

21 Sep 2016 description


The El Niño weather event has been in a neutral phase since May. Nevertheless, it continues to have a devastating impact on vulnerable people in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the Dry Corridor in Central America, and Haiti in the Caribbean. This event will also cause long term consequences for public health, nutrition, livelihoods, water and sanitation.

14 Sep 2016 description

I am honoured to address this first session of the Council's second decade.

After two years as High Commissioner, I believe it is important for me to share with you in this oral update our concern over an emerging pattern: the growing refusal on the part of an increasing number of Member States to grant OHCHR, or the human rights mechanisms, access – either to countries generally, or to specific regions, when that access is requested explicitly, or in other instances to engage with us.

10 Sep 2016 description


  • The South African National Crop Estimate Committee’s (CEC) eighth maize production estimate (August 2016) stands at 7.29 million tonnes, up by 0.5 per cent from the previous estimate (July). The expected yields per hectare are 3.05 t/ha for white maize and 4.51 t/ha for yellow maize.

09 Sep 2016 description


Prospects for global cereal production in 2016 continued to improve in recent months with significant upward revisions for maize and wheat, reflecting particularly favourable weather conditions in some of the large producing countries.

COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 36 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts and drought induced production declines are the main causes that have stressed food security in 2016.