Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agrometeorology in 2016/2017
SARCOF is predicting normal to above normal rainfall in the southern parts of the region, while normal to below normal rainfall is expected in the northern areas
The latest model forecasts have reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.
15 September 2016, Johannesburg
Summary of conclusions and recommendations
Participants of the meeting:
RC and/or UNCT members from 12 countries in the southern Africa region, UN Regional Directors or their representatives, NGO regional Directors or their representatives, IFRC, SADC, World Bank, AfDB, regional UN agency staff.
Main conclusions and recommendations:
Session 1: Humanitarian response
The SADC region is experiencing a devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives. The region experienced a delayed onset of the 2015/2016, rainfall season, followed by erratic rains. Analysis of rainfall performance shows that the October to December 2015 period, which represents the first half of the cropping season, was the driest in more than 35 years in several southern parts of the region
Due to extremely low, erratic and uneven distribution of rainfall, coupled with extreme heat waves Botswana experienced one of the worst drought conditions leading to low hectarage ploughed or planted.
The yield forecast drastically declined with the national estimated production for cereals standing at 7,382 metric tons (MT) which is 3% of the national cereal requirement of 300,000MT.
To cover the food deficit of the 1.1million people identified as in need, P176 million ($83 million) is required.
The region experienced in many parts of the countries, the below normal rainfall conditions depicted by the devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives in the Region.
The SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) had predicted, in August 2015, during SARCOF-19 the below normal rainfall conditions. This was consistent with the observed poor rainfall performance.
The current rainfall 2016/17 outlook is the opposite (reverse) of the last season.
The El Niño weather event has been in a neutral phase since May. Nevertheless, it continues to have a devastating impact on vulnerable people in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the Dry Corridor in Central America, and Haiti in the Caribbean. This event will also cause long term consequences for public health, nutrition, livelihoods, water and sanitation.
While the 2015-2016 El Niño weather event is now over, humanitarian needs continue to grow, and are not expected to peak until early 2017 as food security continues to deteriorate in many regions. WFP, working closely with partners on the ground, is rapidly scaling up life-saving operations for communities reeling from the catastrophic effects of El Niño.
The 2015/16 agricultural season in Southern Africa was the driest in 35 years. In a region where over 70 percent of the population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, and following two, and in some cases three, consecutive years of drought, El Niño has had devastating impacts on the lives and livelihoods of farmers and herders.
Climate variability is the greatest threat to the long-term economic viability of dryland farms.
In order to counter these uncertainties, many farmers turned to diversification as aa survival strategy.
One such farmer is Mr Nonofo Bareeleng, a 38-year-old resident of Kang in Kgalagadi District. He is not a novice to farming because he grew up in a family where agriculture buttered their daily bread. Armed with such background, he knew that farming would be a gateway to greener pastures in his life.
Otse, Botswana – When Rose Matuulane was pregnant five years ago, she had to wait for a nurse to visit her small village, Otse, to provide antenatal check-ups. When the nurse could not make it, Ms. Matuulane had to travel 84 km to the nearest clinic, in Shoghong, arriving the day before so that she could rise early and queue for hours.
If she or any other woman additionally needed a family planning consultation, cervical cancer screening, HIV testing and counselling, or HIV treatment, they would have to come back another day, waiting again for hours.
Today I announce the Australian Government will provide further support to southern Africa in response to the acute food shortages caused by severe El Niño conditions in the region.
Australia will provide $10 million to the World Food Programme to deliver food and nutritional support to 11.9 million drought-affected people in countries in southern Africa.
More Countries Joining Ban Treaty
(Geneva, September 1, 2016) – Cluster munition attacks in Syria and Yemen are causing unacceptable civilian suffering and deserve a strong response, Human Rights Watch said today during the release of the Cluster Munition Monitor 2016 report.
The Government of Mauritius, in cooperation with the African Union Commission (AUC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), will host a major conference of governments and partners in Africa which will examine progress in disaster risk reduction across the continent and the ongoing challenges of responding to extreme weather events which have left 60 million people in severe need across the region.
Les disparités entre les genres coûtent quelque 95 milliards de dollars US par an en moyenne à l’Afrique subsaharienne et ont culminé à 105 milliards de dollars de pertes en 2014 (soit 6 % du PIB régional), compromettant de ce fait les efforts du continent en faveur d’un développement humain et d’une croissance économique inclusifs, indique le Rapport.
Gender inequality is costing sub-Saharan Africa on average $US95 billion a year, peaking at US$105 billion in 2014– or six percent of the region’s GDP – jeopardising the continent’s efforts for inclusive human development and economic growth, according to the Africa Human Development Report 2016.
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2016 and the January to March (JFM) 2017. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) northern Angola, southernmost of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the islands states of Seychelles and eastern-most Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall most of the season.
THE TWENTIETH ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
The African Public Health Emergency Fund (APHEF or the Fund) was established by the Regional Committee in 2012 with the aim of providing catalytic resources for initiating timely responses to public health emergencies. Ever since, commitments have been made at every subsequent Regional Committee session to improve the functionality of this solidarity fund.
The SADC Ministers responsible for Agriculture and Food Security met on 22nd July 2016 in Ezulwini, Swaziland. The objective of the meeting was to review the Food Security situation and progress in the implementation of Regional programmes including the development of the Regional Agriculture Policy Investment Plan. The meeting was also intended to update Ministers on the Food Security situation in the Region following the drought induced by the El Niño phenomenon.
African states commit to eradicate cluster munitions and end the suffering they cause by stepping up efforts to universalize the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions and to strengthen the norm against cluster munitions use by condemning all such use.